Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

534 
WWUS54 KCRP 080443
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXC479-080453-
/O.CAN.KCRP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-120508T0500Z/
WEBB-
1143 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WEBB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. GUSTY WINDS 
UP TO 40 MPH AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY 
STILL OCCUR.

LAT...LON 2821 9955 2820 9954 2783 9985 2784 9990
      2790 9991 2794 9995 2797 9994 2799 10000
      2806 10003 2809 10007 2813 10009 2816 10017
      2820 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 199DEG 24KT 2815 9983

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
746 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
THAT MODELS PROG LOW CIN VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND
MODERATE CAPE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE NORTH CWA. DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY
ACROSS THE NW CWA FOR THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AND SCT BEYOND 06Z.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW
CWA AS WELL AS STRATUS/BR POTENTIAL EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA. CLUSTER OF TSRAS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY HAS
PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SURGE SOUTH THRU DRT-UVA
AND TOWARDS COT BETWEEN 02Z-03Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS
MEXICO WILL DRIFT TOWARDS LRD. COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSTMS THRU AT LEAST
06Z FM COT-LRD. FARTHER EAST...A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM REACHING ALI/CRP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE TO WATCH VCT CLOSELY WITH STORMS APPROACHING THE SAT
AREA. OTHERWISE...BKN MVFR TO POSSB IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING INLAND
GNRLY AFTER 09Z. IN ADDITION...1-3SM VSBLTYS POSSB IN BR INLAND FM
VCT-BEA-ALI 09Z-14Z. CIGS/VSBLTYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE ERLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES
CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MID LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT
TODAY HAS HELPED KEEP MOST OF S TX CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DIURNAL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND INTO OLD MEX. AS OF
WRITING...AN MCS WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED ALONG
THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRE. CONVECTION ACROSS SIERRA MADRE MAY TRY TO CROSS THE
RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING AND AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY TRY TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT..DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD...AND AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR
TONIGHT MAY BECOME STRONG HOWEVER CIN EXISTS ACROSS S TX AND WILL
BE MAIN IMPEDANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT. FRONT THEN PROG TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO S TX WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE
PLAYS A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS FOR TOMORROW. NAM AND CMC WANT TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAIN. GFS AND
ECMWF SLOWLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT KEEP MOST PRECIP
ACROSS RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. PRECIP CHANCES
TOMORROW ARE ALSO PARTIALLY CONTINGENT UPON CONVECTION THAT DOES
OR DOES NOT OCCUR TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NE ZONES DURING THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK APPROACHES AREA COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN HALF
OF CWA /GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 281/. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH STRONG STORM THREAT CONTINUING.
LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT...PRECIP...AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL HAVE GONE COOLER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED
WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AND CONVECTION ONGOING. 12Z NAM PROGS DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAY BRING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION. ATTENTION WILL TURN OUT WEST AS 500
MB UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS ON
THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING ABOVE
1.6 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. INCREASING LIFT IN ADVANCE OF ULL WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LEADING TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL CARRY 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AND INCREASE POPS TO 50/60 FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH UPPER LOW
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS SHIFTING TO THE
COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SYSTEM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THREAT OVER THE COMING DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 80S) FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/STORMS. LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS ON SATURDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE ENDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  88  71  82  69  /  10  20  30  50  20
VICTORIA          71  86  67  81  67  /  40  40  40  40  20
LAREDO            75  93  69  86  69  /  50  40  60  50  30
ALICE             72  89  70  84  67  /  20  20  40  50  30
ROCKPORT          76  84  72  82  71  /  20  20  30  40  20
COTULLA           71  90  68  83  66  /  60  50  60  40  30
KINGSVILLE        73  89  72  83  68  /  10  20  40  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  85  73  82  71  /  10  20  30  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JR/76...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-081115-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
604 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAREDO TO ROCKPORT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WEST OF A HEBBRONVILLE TO FREER
TO TILDEN LINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-081115-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
604 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CB/TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ239-080215-
WEBB-
850 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 841 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTH OF CHUPADERA RANCH AIRPORT...OR 38
MILES WEST OF ENCINAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1033 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ229-230-080430-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-
1033 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 1027 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHARLOTTE TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ZELLA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHARLOTTE TO 17
MILES EAST OF DILLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST LA SALLE AND NORTHERN MCMULLEN
COUNTIES.

JR