Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

225 
WWUS54 KCRP 100030
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
730 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

TXC297-100040-
/O.CAN.KCRP.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-120710T0045Z/
LIVE OAK-
730 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OAKVILLE...
  GEORGE WEST...

LAT...LON 2851 9800 2849 9799 2845 9796 2833 9795
      2827 9823 2852 9826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 085DEG 3KT 2841 9809

$$

87

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF US 281. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AFTER 14Z TUESDAY
AREAWIDE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. CEILINGS TO PERSIST YET
PREDOMINATELY IN THE VFR CATEGORY DRG THE AFTN...YET BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LGT
SFC WIND OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE AFTN
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SUFFICIENT HEATING
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND AN AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AS HEATING IS LOST...
HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD...AFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA.
STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW...AND WITH THE RICH MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS...AND ANY COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT STRONGER OR
HEAVIER STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AT
TIMES. HOWEVER... OVERALL DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH RAINFALL GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCROACH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...WHICH
SHOULD AIDE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALSO
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CHANCES AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND A BROAD MID LEVEL WEAKNESS STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE TEXAS COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  PWAT VALUES OF 2.3 TO
2.4 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HIGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND LIMITED INHIBITION (700MB TEMPS NEAR 8
DEGREES)...UPPED POPS TO 50 OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. TAPERED OFF POPS AFTER WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCE POPS
FOR DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. KEPT
TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  76  93  76  /  30  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  74  /  40  60  40  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  20  30  30  40  20
ALICE             75  95  75  95  76  /  30  40  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          80  90  79  90  79  /  30  50  40  40  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  96  75  /  20  50  40  40  20
KINGSVILLE        76  95  76  96  76  /  30  40  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  78  90  78  /  30  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
531 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-101045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
531 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RG/JV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
651 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

TXZ231-100030-
LIVE OAK-
651 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LIVE OAK COUNTY...

AT 649 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OAKVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GEORGE
WEST. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

87