Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
257 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LOW HAS
SLOWLY MOVED W THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEX. THE LOW IS PROGD TO CONT TO SLOWLY MV W TO SW AND
ACROSS S TX THRU TUE...BRINGING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX.
HAVE GONE WITH DECREASING RAIN CHCS THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TOWARD EARLY TUE MORNING AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHC BY TUE EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES. BY EARLY WED
MORNING AFTER 06Z...THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO
THE INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN ON TUE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...THE WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO MOD LEVELS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONT INTO TUE AND TUE NIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA'S AND TSRA'S WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS PROG PW VALUES TO INCREASE AOA 2 INCHES ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TO THE WEST PUTTING PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
FOR LATE INTO THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ALSO...GFS/EURO NOW HAVE JUST
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. GFS PROG PWATS TO FALL AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES..SO THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STARTED TO TAPER OFF AND LOWER POPS IN
LATER PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AS WELL FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  76  91  74  /  20  40  30  50  20
VICTORIA          74  91  74  91  72  /  20  40  30  50  20
LAREDO            77 100  78  97  76  /  10  10  20  30  20
ALICE             74  95  74  93  72  /  20  40  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  88  79  89  77  /  20  40  30  50  30
COTULLA           74  98  74  96  73  /  10  10  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        75  94  76  92  73  /  20  40  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  79  88  78  /  20  40  30  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
538 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-191100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
538 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 37.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY WITH CHANCES PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE LESSENING BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GW/RH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
417 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

TXZ240-182200-
DUVAL-
417 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING DUVAL COUNTY...

AT 411 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BENAVIDES...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PZ