Special Marine Warning 7, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
321 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MOIST TONGUE OF 60 PLUS
DEW POINTS FROM GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL IL AND SW INDIANA. WEAK
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL IL INTO WRN KY. CAPES ACROSS AREA
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. TSRA NW FIRING UP AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ALONG AN AREA OF
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. FORECAST AREA IS IN GENERAL
THUNDER...BUT NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ONE INCH HAIL.

KEPT FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN ONE AND 1.2 INCHES.  IN ADDITION AS MUCH
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO PICKED UP YDY AND
OVERNIGHT GROUND NEAR SATURATION. ANY HEAVY RAINING SLOW MOVING TSRA
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  DID
MENTION CHC TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPES BUILD TO BETWEEN 1000
J/KG AND 1500. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY KICKER COULD HINDER
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON TSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COOLER TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TIMING STILL IS AN ISSUE AND LIKELY THIS WILL TAKE A COUPLE/FEW DAYS
TO CROSS THE REGION. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE AND THE MID U.S. UPPER LOW. EVEN MORE DIFFERENCE UPON
TIMING OF ITS EXIT AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ECMWF
STILL THE FASTEST AND ALSO A LITTLE COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL JUST BE ABOUT 15 OR SO DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWIRLING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON A
HIT OR MISS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. BEST
MOISTURE IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AND ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH HEATING. WILL HAVE CB MENTIONS IN ALL TAFS AND TS
IN TEMPOS FOR MFD/CAK/CLE/YNG. BY EVENING THUNDER CHANCES MORE
ISOLATED...BUT SHOWER CHANCES LINGER ESPECIALLY THE EAST HALF
UNDER THE DISSIPATING WAVE. WILL HAVE FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE SOME DRYING ALOFT COULD MAKE IT
IN AND SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE. FURTHER EAST UNSURE ABOUT
A LINGERING LOWER END VFR DECK OR POSSIBLE MVFR DECK AND HOW MUCH
BR THERE MAY BE AFTER THE LIGHT SHOWERS END.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING BR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LAKE CONDITIONS QUIET.
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND FOR THE MOST PART
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A FRONT THAT WILL MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES MID WEEK AND MAY WANT TO SLIP ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY...BUT TIMING OF FEATURES LATE THIS WEEK COMPLICATED BY A
CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-191045-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
634 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-191045-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
634 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.