Special Marine Warning 45, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1136 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE NEXT WEEK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST UPDATE TO CLEAR LUCAS WOOD AND HANCOCK FROM THE WATCH.
WE ARE WATCHING CONVECTION OVER ST. LOUIS. LATEST HRRR MODELS
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z
IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...THE LAST BATCH BEING WITH THE COLD FRONT. DRIER
AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND TOLEDO WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND AND FALLING DEW POINTS. IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO GET MOST OF THE
SHOWERS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ACROSS THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES OF EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT PASSES
OVER THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 10C.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOW DEW POINTS.
THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES AND IT WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN TOLEDO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL BREAK-OFF FROM TIME-TO-TIME AND BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGHS BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SLATED TO SWEEP ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE ESPECIALLY KMFD AND SOUTH THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CLIP THAT AREA.

FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY
AFTER 06Z. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS GETTING
STRONGER LOOK FOR THE WAVES TO BUILD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE ERIE.

AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LAKE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
POSTED ON SUNDAY...BEGINNING AT 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
513 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-050915-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-MARION-
513 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-050915-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
513 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE FRONT
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...ANY CHANGES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
LOCATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ142>144-162>164-050915-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
513 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

OHZ003-006>009-017-018-027-028-036-037-042315-
CRAWFORD-ERIE-HANCOCK-LUCAS-MARION-MORROW-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-SENECA-
WOOD-WYANDOT-
651 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HANCOCK...LUCAS...MARION...OTTAWA...
SANDUSKY...SENECA...WESTERN CRAWFORD...WESTERN ERIE...WESTERN
MORROW...WOOD AND WYANDOT COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BOWLING GREEN...35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESHLER TO 22 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ADA TO 36 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAWFORD...ERIE...HANCOCK...LUCAS...MARION...MORROW...
OTTAWA...SANDUSKY...SENECA...WOOD AND WYANDOT COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA.

LOMBARDY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
833 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E OAK HARBOR          41.51N 83.13W
08/04/2012  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LOMBARDY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
851 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEMBERVILLE             41.41N 83.46W
08/04/2012                   WOOD               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOWNED TREES AND POWER POLES COUNTYWIDE.

&&

LOMBARDY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1017 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAUMEE                  41.57N 83.65W
08/04/2012                   LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND FELL ON A HOUSE.

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOLEDO                  41.66N 83.58W
08/04/2012  E70 MPH          LUCAS              OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLAND                 41.62N 83.71W
08/04/2012                   LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TELEPHONE POLES DOWN.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLAND                 41.62N 83.71W
08/04/2012                   LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN.

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLAND                 41.62N 83.71W
08/04/2012                   LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TELEPHONE POLES DOWN.

&&

LOMBARDY