Special Marine Warning 40, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RIGHT NOW THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO WE ARE NOW OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR EXISTS
ALOFT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
ENTIRE WATCH. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
BE OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE
THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT FALL
OFF THAT MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT SO GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

A FEW SPOTS COULD FLIRT WITH WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY TOPPED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE MORNING WILL
BE DRY BUT EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE SEVERE WEATHER.
BY EARLY SATURDAY THE PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE EAST THIRD OF THE AREA. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD A DECENT DAY
SATURDAY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS. BY EVENING THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE OVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS PROBABLY
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF OUR
TAF ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY.

I STILL KEPT THE CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z IN THE TAFS BUT
IT COULD GO LONGER INTO THE EVENING FOR A FEW SITES.

OUR FORECAST MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL COOLING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND MVFR CIGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOSTLY EAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE LAKE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
EXPECTING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...LOMBARDY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
316 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

OHZ029-036-037-047-262015-
KNOX-MARION-MORROW-RICHLAND-
316 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR KNOX...MARION...MORROW AND SOUTHERN
RICHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS....HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SPOTTED....PLEASE TAKE SHELTER.

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINBORO                41.87N 80.12W
07/26/2012                   ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

LOMBARDY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
505 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S MOUNT VERNON       40.25N 82.48W
07/26/2012                   KNOX               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

LOMBARDY

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