Special Marine Warning 28, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THEN NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE I-75 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO
INCREASE THE POP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW WILL CLIP THE AREA. IT IS HOT ENOUGH
THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
BRIEFLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT
AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SECOND...WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED GIVEN HOW THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TS COMPLEX. THINKING THAT IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF
THIS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED WITH THE COMPLEX OFF
TO THE WEST. THE HRRR IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION
BRINGING ANY SHRA/TS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE SREF
MAINLY KEEPS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ONE OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ITEMS TO NOTE WAS THAT DPTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN A
BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST WHICH INDICATES THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE SFC INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

FINALLY...WELL UPSTREAM THERE IS RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER MN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEATHER
EVOLVING BY THE HOUR THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WENT MAINLY A BIT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LAST
NIGHTS LOWS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN BEGIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE TOUGH TO WORK WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR WEATHER WILL BE MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. OVERALL KEPT POPS GENERALLY LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. DURING THIS TIME ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF TRACKING MORE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.

CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. CARRY AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED NIGHT. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE
AIRMASS CHANGE THOUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 90S AGAIN AND DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE 60S. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT ON
THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM TODAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES.  THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON FRIDAY.  THE BIG
CHALLENGE IS THE WEEKEND.  THE GFS TAKES A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES AND BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND MEANING TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.  THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE THAT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY.  WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A GENERIC SMALL POP ON
SUNDAY.  HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LOWER MI SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT ACROSS LERI. CONVECTION FIRING OVER IN SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE SW OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE KFDY AND KMFD A MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FURTHER OUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LAKE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE AT KCLE AND KERI THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.  UNTIL THEN
THE FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY ONSHORE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY.  ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THE FLOW
WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY.  A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY.  LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.  SPEEDS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ABE/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ABE/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-018>023-030>033-038-089-
PAZ001>003-021945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-
MAHONING-HOLMES-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ017-027>029-036-037-047-021945-
HANCOCK-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-MARION-MORROW-KNOX-
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

OHZ003-006-017-012200-
HANCOCK-LUCAS-WOOD-
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HANCOCK...LUCAS AND WOOD COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 40 MILES WEST OF SYLVANIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY... ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...HAIL... AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

KOSARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

OHZ003-006-007-012145-
LUCAS-OTTAWA-WOOD-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WOOD...LUCAS AND WESTERN OTTAWA
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SWANTON...OR 19 MILES WEST
OF SYLVANIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO OVER 50
MPH...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

!THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             TOLEDO                  41.66N 83.58W
07/01/2012  E2.00 INCH       LUCAS              OH   PUBLIC

&&

THOMPSON