Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Cleveland, OH

740 
FZUS71 KCLE 130431
MWSCLE

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2012

LEZ142-143-162-163-130545-
/O.CON.KCLE.MA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120313T0545Z/
1231 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH...
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH...
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER...
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE TO US/CANADIAN
BORDER...

AT 1227 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO 40 KNOTS FROM 10
NM WEST OF POINT PELEE TO RENO BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO 40 KNOTS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

LAT...LON 4172 8341 4196 8310 4187 8308 4177 8291
      4172 8274 4167 8268 4167 8260 4158 8260
      4151 8269 4154 8275 4151 8294 4169 8333
      4168 8343 4171 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 290DEG 27KT 4187 8270 4163 8288
          4160 8324
WIND...HAIL 40KTS 0.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1048 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH 74 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NW OHIO AS TRAILING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE AREA. STORM
MOTION IS STILL TO THE NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 40 MPH WITH ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT IS STARTING TO
WANE AS TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDAY HAVE DROPPED BACK CLOSER
TO 60 DEGREES. UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW...TOPPING OUT AROUND 20K FEET WITH THE TALLEST STORMS.
THIS IS A LITTLE TOO SHALLOW TO SEE MUCH HAIL LEAVING STRONG WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONGLY BACKED
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS ALSO REDUCING THE
TORNADO THREAT. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG THOUGH AND WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE STRONGER STORMS FOR A WIND THREAT. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS
ALREADY AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE DRY BUT ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL
LAKES WITH SAGGING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS SLOWER WITH
FRONT THAN YDY. NAM IS THE FASTEST OF THE 3 MODELS BRINGING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF MUCH CLOSER. SINCE GFS AND
ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE USED THEM FOR TIMING OF PRECIP. BRING TSRA
INTO NW OH THURSDAY...AND OVER ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THE STALLED FRONT THAT WAS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL EVEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
MOVES HIGH PRESSURE IN QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AT THIS TIME I WILL
KEEP THE THREAT GOING UNTIL THE SOLUTION IS CLEARER. WILL DRY THINGS
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR MONDAY. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. LAKE BREEZE FRONTS WILL DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE AREA IS QUIET RIGHT NOW WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD JUMP TO VFR FOR
MOST OF THE EVENING ALL AREAS. IFR CONDITIONS AT KYNG AND KCAK
APPEAR TO BE OBSERVER DRIVEN. CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW COULD
SNEAK INTO NW OH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES. WILL GO WITH THUNDER ONLY AT KTOL AND KCLE FOR
THE TIME BEING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP BACK TO MVFR WITH IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. RAPID DRYING OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SCT TO SKC ALL AREAS BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WITH NOT
THAT MUCH COLD ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND MAINLY
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WEAK FRONT STALLING NEAR LAKE ERIE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
752 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

OHZ003-006>008-140000-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-
752 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 74 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ009>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-140000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
752 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1127 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

OHZ003-130415-
LUCAS-
1127 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LUCAS COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1126 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SWANTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SYLVANIA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOLLAND AND SYLVANIA BY 1135 PM EDT.
  TOLEDO BY 1145 PM EDT.
  OREGON BY 1155 PM EDT.

THE TOWNS OF BERKEY...MAUMEE...OTTAWA HILLS AND HARBOR VIEW ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.