Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1207 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 585 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. LINE OF
TSTMS WITH A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINE HAS BEEN SHOWING
OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH REAR INFLOW JET SIGNATURES AS IT
MOVES EAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR
EAST OF A WALTERBORO-BEAUFORT LINE...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
METRO AREA. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO REFLECT GOING
TEMPERATURE AND RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS STEADILY EXPANDING NORTH. LOOKS TO BE A
WET DAY FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SEVERAL
PASSING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL
FACTORS INDICATE PERIODS OF VERY WET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...IF NOT HIGHER...AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS
PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ALSO...THE UPPER JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP TO
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA WITH THE 100+ KNOT JET JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE DECENT LIFT AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM....BUT WITH SHOWALTER INDICES GENERALLY POSITIVE AND LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -3C...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. ALSO...PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL AID IN KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH WILL ALSO HINDER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND AND LOW
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. AS THE SURFACE...THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE PRIOR TO DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE SWINGING ALONG THE WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...
LIKELY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. PWATS WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE
NEIGHBORING WATERS. THIS IS WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE IN MAINTAINING ITS HOLD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EXTEND
PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL UNITED STATES PUSHES EASTWARD. AS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
BE MUCH LESS PRODUCTIVE AT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH A
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE TRADITIONAL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH MID-MORNING. THEN...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS APPEARS BEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AND A CB
GROUP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED AT KCHS FROM 15-18Z WHEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION
IS TIMED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO SUB-VFR LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT ONCE CONVECTION TAPERS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BRING
VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND
AS A RESULT WINDS AT THE SURFACE COULD INCREASE UPWARDS OF 15-20
KT AT TIMES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PRIOR TO DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT AS THE FRONT NEARS...THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BRIEF SURGES OF ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS. GENERALLY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS INLAND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JHP/JAQ
LONG TERM...JHP
AVIATION...JHP/JAQ
MARINE...JHP/JAQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ101-116>119-137>141-SCZ042>045-047>052-201500-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-EFFINGHAM-INLAND BRYAN-
COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-
COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-HAMPTON-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
1049 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-088-099-100-114-115-SCZ040-201500-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-TATTNALL-EVANS-ALLENDALE-
1049 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ374-201500-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1049 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. REMAIN ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1208 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

SCZ045-191645-
INLAND BERKELEY-
1208 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...
...MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR...

AT 1203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR MOOREFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BONNEAU...BONNEAU BEACH...CROSS...EADYTOWN...EASTERN LAKE MARION...
MONCKS CORNER...NORTHERN LAKE MOULTRIE...OLD SANTEE CANAL STATE
PARK...PINOPOLIS...SAINT STEPHEN AND SOUTHERN LAKE MOULTRIE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LAKE MOULTRIE. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATERS...STAY AS
LOW AS POSSIBLE AND WEAR A PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICE. SWIMMERS
SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WATER AND INTO A STURDY BUILDING. REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE AT RISK OF BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8017 3331 8026 3342 8023 3346 8018
      3346 8015 3348 8016 3351 8013 3350 7998
      3335 7976 3333 7975 3330 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 251DEG 26KT 3327 8012

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