Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BUSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-EVENING AS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE
SEABREEZE AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS IN THIS EVENING. SEVERE
TSTM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STALLS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE BEST ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL AT LEAST SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INITIATE EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO
THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE AS CELL AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A MOIST AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL
SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION
OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
FORMED INLAND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND THE
SEABREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD AN
EARLIER SPARK TIME THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF EARLY MORNING
CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
SUNSET ALONG THE COAST SO KEPT VCTS IN UNTIL 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JHP
AVIATION...BDC
MARINE...JAQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-
047>052-301900-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-
EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-
COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ374-301900-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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