Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
849 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEA BREEZE IS MAKING STEADILY MOVEMENT INLAND AND IS POISED TO
INTERSECT A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LURKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. 10/00Z CHS RAOB WAS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG AND DCAPES NEAR 1300 J/KG. UPDATED GRIDDED
AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANTICIPATION
OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A METTER-
WALTERBORO-MONCKS CORNER LINE. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. TSTMS MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA IF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING OCCURS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ASSUMING TSTMS DO NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM MID 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON COUNTY COULD BE
CHALLENGED TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD AS UPPER
TROUGHING INCREASES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
LIKELY STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE AN IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND PEE-DEE REGIONS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THIS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ORGANIZING INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PUSHING
SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO OR EVEN INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS EACH DAY GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT THESE
CHANCES WOULD GO HIGHER IF ANY UPSTREAM ORGANIZATION OCCURS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVELS WARM AND A STRONGER CAP SETS UP. WE SHOW A
DECREASING POP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS TO IMPACT KCHS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION JUST YET. TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF KCHS/KSAV SO NO MENTION WILL BE
INCLUDED WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING N/NW OF THE WATERS...THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO A SURGE OF SW WINDS
15-20 KT TONIGHT. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED/UNCOMMON...THUS NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND TO AS HIGH
AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT SC WATERS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK. THROUGH MID
WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL
OUT INLAND...LIKELY ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AND
CREATING NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN CHS HARBOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR ANY HEADLINES THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO REMAIN SMALL OVERALL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR JULY 9...
KCHS...80/1998

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 10...
KCHS...81/1986
KCHL...82/1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
KSAV...84/1879

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-100815-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
411 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
857 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

SCZ045-100130-
INLAND BERKELEY-
857 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...MARINERS ON EASTERN LAKE MARION SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR...

AT 854 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...10 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASTERN LAKE MARION...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN LAKE MARION...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN LAKE MARION.
BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATERS...STAY AS LOW AS POSSIBLE AND WEAR A PERSONAL FLOATATION
DEVICE. SWIMMERS SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WATER AND INTO A STURDY
BUILDING. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE AT RISK OF
BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 8014 3339 8023 3340 8023 3344 8023
      3345 8022 3346 8020 3346 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 306DEG 8KT 3353 8031

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

SCZ045-100215-
INLAND BERKELEY-
947 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY
THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR JUDGE TOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
SAINT STEPHEN...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3333 7978 3343 8007 3350 8011 3351 8008
      3350 7996 3344 7986 3341 7985 3338 7980
      3338 7979 3334 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 308DEG 18KT 3348 8002

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
955 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

SCZ045-100230-
INLAND BERKELEY-
955 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR...

AT 951 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR PINEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN LAKE MOULTRIE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LAKE MOULTRIE. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATERS...STAY AS
LOW AS POSSIBLE AND WEAR A PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICE. SWIMMERS
SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WATER AND INTO A STURDY BUILDING. REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE AT RISK OF BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 8004 3339 7999 3336 7999 3334 7997
      3333 7999 3330 7997 3327 7997 3337 8010
      3339 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 305DEG 9KT 3341 8003