Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
346 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE REGION HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO SET UP IN THE
AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW CU
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SC WITH MORE SCATTERED CU IN SE GA. AS
SUCH...IT APPEARS THE CAPPING NOTED EARLIER IS STILL IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT
NOW JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND SE GA SO THE FOCUS FOR
BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY WEST OF I-95. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES
FURTHER TO THE EAST INCLUDING THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES...BUT THE OVERALL
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AND MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE LATE EVENING.
MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
ANY PRECIP FROM THE REMNANT MCS TO THE WEST. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST
AND THE LEE/SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST. WARM SW TO WSW FLOW WILL GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MODELS TRY TO
COOL US DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR SO ON SUNDAY...BUT THE RIDGE LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL
TRENDS.

THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S WILL
PROMOTE SOME PRETTY HIGH VALUES FOR INSTABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...BUT RISING HEIGHTS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP
COVERAGE SCATTERED AT BEST. I AM GOING FOR LOW END CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. BECAUSE WE WILL BE
SO UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS...ANY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GO SEVERE.

THE RIDGE JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG TO SEE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
I AM PUTTING AROUND 10 POPS IN JUST TO SHOW THE LOW LEVEL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY SOME RESPECT...BUT THE CAP LOOKS AWFULLY STRONG.

SUNDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER AS THE HEIGHTS LOWER EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN CASE THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO KICK OFF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REBUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THE LINGERING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL THUS RE-STRENGTHEN FROM
THE NORTH AND SLIP CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN
EMBEDDED FRONT WILL ALSO DESCEND TOWARD THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FRONTAL PROGRESSION BY MID WEEK..LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE THUS PREFERRED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
PERSISTENCE POP FORECAST...ADVERTISING SOLID RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FROM
THE NEARING SURFACE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOLING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
90S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGHS TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD THE LOW
90S OR EVEN UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KSAV WITHIN
THE VICINITY SO I HAVE AMENDED THE TAF TO ADD VCTS AND CB. STILL
DON/T THINK THAT THE TERMINAL WILL RECEIVE A DIRECT HIT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A KCHS...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS OCCURRING AND
EXPECTED SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. WE STILL EXPECT ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING THE WINDS UP INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 2-3 RANGE WITHIN 20 NM...WITH 3-4 POSSIBLE
BEYOND.

THERE WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL SURGES IN WIND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE EACH EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS...AND THE DIRECTION IS OFFSHORE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED BY SWELL...SO THE SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA AS WELL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ALSHEIMER
LONG TERM...79
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ALSHEIMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
455 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-060900-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
455 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
518 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ101-116-052145-
EFFINGHAM-INLAND BRYAN-
518 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM AND BRYAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 513 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAULKVILLE TO
ELLABELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BLITCHTON...EDEN...ELLABELL...LANIER...MARLOW AND MELDRIM...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 8158 3224 8147 3223 8146 3224 8143
      3225 8144 3233 8128 3224 8119 3216 8131
      3201 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 215DEG 6KT 3219 8128 3208 8149

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
523 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

SCZ040-042-052215-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
523 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR JENNYS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BRUNSON...CROCKETVILLE...FAIRFAX...GIFFORD...HAMPTON...MILEY...
SYCAMORE AND ULMER...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 8118 3306 8112 3306 8110 3305 8109
      3293 8099 3290 8098 3285 8124 3310 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 347DEG 6KT 3303 8115

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
536 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N GARDEN CITY         32.11N  81.17W
07/05/2012                   CHATHAM            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TRESS DOWN ALONG BIG HILL ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR. PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200460

VB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
544 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N SAVANNAH            32.10N  81.08W
07/05/2012  M46 MPH          CHATHAM            GA   RAWS

            46 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SAVANNAH NATIONAL WILDLIFE
            REFUGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200461

FWA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
609 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

SCZ045-052-052300-
INLAND BERKELEY-TIDAL BERKELEY-
609 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR WOODLAND LANDING...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
TARRY TOWN...RICHMOND

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8007 3318 7989 3302 7977 3293 7992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 141DEG 3KT 3304 7990