Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE WEAKEST LOW LEVEL
CAP...AND HENCE THE BEST INSTABILITY...WILL BE LOCATED. SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING...BUT END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. I CAN'T RULE OUT ANOTHER WARNING OR TWO DUE TO
THE REASONABLY HEALTHY MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND DCAPE AS
HIGH AS 1500 J/KG AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ANY THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. IN SUMMARY...A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PULSE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR WITH NOT MUCH
AT THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL OF COURSE BE VARIABLE NEAR CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY
WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES AROUND 5 PM AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 70S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE AND
ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE BAGGY
TROFFING SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE TROF AND SOME LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT INTO BETWEEN THE SUB
TROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE TROF POSITIONED INLAND. AS
SUCH...THE PRIMARY FORCING AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE DESTABILIZATION...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE TROF IN THE
VICINITY. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH LI
VALES IN THE -1 TO -3 C RANGE DUE TO SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS AND A HINT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OCCURRING WEST OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SURFACE TROF. I HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED POP SCHEME IN PLACE
WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE DUE TO SOME LOWER DEW POINTS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH THE TROF
SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL SETUP WILL REMAIN THE SAME
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WEAK UPPER TROF AND ANY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 500 MB TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING AROUND -8C BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LI VALUES AROUND -5 OR -6 EACH
DAY...WITH HIGHER PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT TIMES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH FEATURES
30-40 POPS EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS FEATURE A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND DUE TO A SLIGHT FALLING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT...BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING IN ITS PLACE.
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITHIN AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL UNDERGO SEVERAL STAGES OF WEAKENING AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
COASTLINE. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN RESTRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIPS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAX HEATING/INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON...STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. I HAVE PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
STAY CLEAR OF KCHS. I AM A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AT KSAV...BUT AT
THIS TIME I WILL HOLD OFF AMENDING UNLESS IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AS THE LEE TROF GOES THROUGH ITS DIURNAL INTENSITY MAXIMUM...BUT
WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A
BIT TO 3 FEET IN THE OUTER MOST GEORGIA WATERS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET
ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN INLAND
TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MARINE ZONES. THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ON A STEADY STRENGTHENING TREND AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 1/4 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED
LEVELS ALL DAY. A CONTINUATION OF THESE ANOMALIES WOULD KEEP
LEVELS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON...AND SEVERAL
INCHES BELOW CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI. AT THIS TIME...I WILL HOLD
OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ISSUE A SHORT LIVED ADVISORY IF NEEDED
FOR LATER THIS EVENING. IN ANY EVENT...IT WILL BE A LOW IMPACT
TYPE OF EVENT WITH ONLY THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SEEING ANY
KIND OF SEA WATER.

TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDES IN THE LATE EVENING...THERE MAY NOT BE A LOT OF BEACH FOR
THOSE PLANNING TO ATTEND OCEANSIDE INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ALSHEIMER
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...79
AVIATION...JHP
MARINE...ALSHEIMER/BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ALSHEIMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-042000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ENE SYLVANIA          32.80N  81.54W
07/03/2012                   SCREVEN            GA   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TREE DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200447

DPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ101-032030-
EFFINGHAM-
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR BLANDFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
EDEN...GUYTON...MARLOW...MELDRIM...PINEORA...RINCON...SPRINGFIELD AND
STILLWELL...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 8146 3241 8122 3225 8118 3211 8140
      3214 8141 3215 8140 3216 8141 3219 8142
      3221 8141 3221 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 348DEG 3KT 3228 8132

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW APPLETON           33.07N  81.41W
07/03/2012                   ALLENDALE          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A DEPUTY REPORTED ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 125.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200448

DPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ087-088-100-032115-
BULLOCH-JENKINS-SCREVEN-
423 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...JENKINS AND
BULLOCH COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SCARBORO TO
PARKERS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BUTTS...DOVER...EMMALANE...HERNDON...HOPEULIKIT...MIDDLEGROUND...
MILLEN...PERKINS...PORTAL...ROCKY FORD...SCARBORO...WESTSIDE AND
WOODCLIFF...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8213 3292 8209 3293 8196 3296 8188
      3295 8182 3294 8180 3258 8158 3246 8194
      3251 8197 3257 8203 3261 8201 3266 8209
      3282 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 062DEG 8KT 3276 8189 3267 8177

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE GUYTON            32.34N  81.37W
07/03/2012                   EFFINGHAM          GA   FOREST SERVICE

            THE GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTED A FEW LARGE
            LIMBS DOWN. LIMBS WERE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200449

DPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
439 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ100-101-116-138-032130-
BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-INLAND BRYAN-INLAND LIBERTY-
439 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH...
EFFINGHAM...LIBERTY AND BRYAN COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEEFIELD TO
BLITCHTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BAY...BLITCHTON...BROOKLET...DENMARK...ELLABELL...GEORGIA SOUTHERN...
GROVELAND...LANIER...LEEFIELD...NEVILS...PEMBROKE...REGISTER...
STATESBORO AND STILSON...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8194 3248 8155 3244 8153 3242 8154
      3236 8148 3209 8139 3194 8156 3214 8178
      3218 8178 3223 8181 3224 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 045DEG 7KT 3242 8159 3216 8144