Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN
STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE
AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE
AND NORTHERN GEORGIA BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

STRONG DESTABILIZATION TOOK PLACE AS TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-EVENING MESOANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER THE AREA...WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AS
HIGH AS 700-900 J/KG AND LI/S OF -3 TO -5. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A
RESPECTABLE 7.0 C/KM. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES
STILL ARE NOT VERY HIGH.

A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORT
WAVE...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR ABOUT THE TIME
THAT THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THOSE
COUNTIES EXPIRES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO
BE THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS COME
TO AN END AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THAT SHORT
WAVE DEPARTS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. AS FAR AS
RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. JUST SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND...I HAVE GONE WITH GFS SOLUTION INDICATING A FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP OUR CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION LOW AND THE TEMPS HIGH. I EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REACH
90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....EXCEPT LOCATIONS WITHIN 10 MILES OR SO OF
THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MODERATE THE TEMPS A BIT.
HOWEVER...NIGHT TIME LOWS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
BELOW 70...WITH MID 60S INLAND.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SINKS DOWN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF/S
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...GIVEN TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL RISK FOR SH/TSTMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND
MVFR FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD INCREASE UPWARDS OF 15
KT...POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...FOR
A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS
SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST. COULD SEE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR SEAS BEYOND 20
NM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...ALSHEIMER
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042-043-047>049-051-231000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-COASTAL JASPER-
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-SCZ044-045-050-052-231000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-CHARLESTON-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ350-352-354-374-231000-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             MONCKS CORNER           33.20N  80.01W
05/22/2012  E0.88 INCH       BERKELEY           SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN MONCKS CORNER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200198

BDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SW OLD SANTEE CANAL S 33.17N  79.99W
05/22/2012                   BERKELEY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OFF OF
            CYPRESS GARDENS ROAD IN MONCKS CORNER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200199

BDC

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