Special Marine Warning 97, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RADAR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON NOW THAT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED AND THE SEABREEZE HAS
ACTIVATED. A CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON APPROXIMATELY FROM AWENDAW NORTHEAST TO THE GRAND
STRAND. THUS FAR THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
BEEN IN THIS AREA ALTHOUGH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP
FARTHER SW. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS QUITE A BIT
LESS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS WARM AND HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP. ALSO...THE MID-LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED UP QUITE A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RESULTING DOWNDRAFT CAPES ARE LESS THAN
800 J/KG. IT SEEMS THIS IS HAVING A PRONOUNCED IMPACT ON THE
NATURE OF THE STORMS TODAY AS WE ARE SEEING MUCH LESS ICE SHOWING
UP ON RADAR AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE. THIS IN TURN IS RESULTING IN FEWER BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WHICH NORMALLY TRIGGER A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY.

WE DO HAVE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE REGION SITS
UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET...AND AN ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT
TODAY/TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND PLAINS
STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
TAKE PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER ONE DAY TO THE NEXT AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA. OVERALL...EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...TYPICALLY DURING THE USUAL
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES STRENGTHEN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE MAINTAINED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL 22Z DUE TO SEVERAL
FACTORS COMBINING TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIATION IS A BIT SLOWER TODAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WITHOUT MUCH ON RADAR AS OF YET...COULD NOT PIN
DOWN TIMING WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN 18Z TAFS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL
SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JHP
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JAQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-291430-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-291430-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
618 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE GILLISONVILLE      32.60N  80.99W
07/28/2012                   JASPER             SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US
            HIGHWAY 278 AND SOUTH CAROLINA 462.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200545

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE GILLISONVILLE      32.60N  80.99W
07/28/2012                   JASPER             SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US
            HIGHWAY 278 AND SOUTH CAROLINA 462.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200545

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARDEEVILLE             32.29N  81.08W
07/28/2012                   JASPER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED ONE TREE AND POWER LINE DOWN
            ALONG DEERFIELD ROAD IN HARDEEVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200546

DPB