Special Marine Warning 91, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH HAS LIT UP WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS HAVE POPPED UP. NOW THAT THE CAP HAS BEEN BROKEN IN SOME
SPOTS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO OUR SW ZONES...AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AFTER SUNSET THAN THE
LAST TWO NIGHTS DUE TO THE SUPPORT OF SOME UPPER ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA.

HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY AT THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR THE DAY.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE VALUES DROP BELOW 110F BY 6 PM...AFTER
WHICH THE HEAT ADVISORY CAN LIKELY BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES...THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE INLAND ADVANCING SEA BREEZE SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS WELL. SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND. AMPLE MOISTURE...LIMITED
SUBSIDENCE...THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AND THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COOLER
BEACHES...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANCE NEEDED FOR THE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER ONE DAY FROM THE NEXT AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL
PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AND
AFFECTING THE REGION. WITH THIS ENERGY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE OF DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL AT LEAST ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD WITH LOW 90S GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
LOW 70S EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY. WE ADDED VICINITY THUNDER AT SAV THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO SOME TOWERING CU BUILD-UP JUST TO THE WEST AND THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST INLAND FROM EITHER TERMINAL TODAY.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD
REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL
SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JHP
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL/JAQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
455 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-280900-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
455 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ117-119-139>141-SCZ048>052-280900-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
455 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-SCZ040-042>045-047-280900-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
455 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
COMING IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
444 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW ASHEPOO           32.77N  80.56W
07/27/2012                   COLLETON           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON BONNIE DUNE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200530

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW SPRINGFIELD       32.39N  81.43W
07/27/2012                   EFFINGHAM          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            THE EFFINGHAM 911 CALL CENTER RELAYED A REPORT OF ONE
            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 17 AND
            SPRINGFIELD TUSCULUM ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200531

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
534 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HAMPTON             32.88N  81.16W
07/27/2012                   HAMPTON            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POCOTALIGO ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200532

JAQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
544 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHADOWMOSS              32.85N  80.07W
07/27/2012                   CHARLESTON         SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            SHADOWMOSS PARKWAY AND ASHLEY RIVER ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200533

DPB