Special Marine Warning 89, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO MARCH THROUGH THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND COLLETON COUNTY. A LARGE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS NOW PRECEDING THE PRIMARY LINE PER KCLX HIGH
RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY DATE SO SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AS THE LINE MOVES SOUTH. ADJUSTED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HOLDING FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK... BUT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER ONCE THE LINE MOVES SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
INLAND TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN. LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE
SEABREEZE LOOKS TO REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOONS DUE TO A DEEP WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S EACH DAY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO BEGIN POPPING
DUE TO A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
REACHED IN SOME PLACES THURSDAY OR FRIDAY DUE TO VALUES REACHING
110F FOR 2-3 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NE SATURDAY...WHICH
AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE APEX OF THIS TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH TO GA/FL...AND IT MOVES LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE/RE NOT YET CERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROP INTO THE TROUGH TO MAINTAIN ITS PLACE
OVER THE EAST AND SE...OR DOES IT REMAIN VOID OF ANY PERTURBATIONS
AND INSTEAD BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. AT THE SURFACE OUR CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT THE INLAND TROUGH WILL REMAIN NOT FAR FROM THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEN THE QUESTION REMAINS IS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT NEVER GETS THIS FAR SE...SO THIS
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WE PREFER NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. RECENT TRENDS INDICATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING TO THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 01Z AND
LASTING A FEW HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED VCTS FROM 01-05Z AT THE CHS TERMINAL. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT THE CHS TERMINAL FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 05Z SHOULD ACTIVITY MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED IN AN
AREA BETWEEN THE INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW ELEVATED. WINDS
WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE SC WATERS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
THE SC WATERS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIGHTEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND THE INLAND TROUGH DEEPENS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME SOLID 15-20 KTS DURING OVERNIGHT SURGES AND THE COASTAL
SEABREEZE COULD EXCEED 15 KT AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND LONGER
PERIOD SWELL WAVES...WITH THE RESULTING COMBINED SEAS MOSTLY HELD
AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AMZ354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-251000-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL PLEASE LET US KNOW EITHER BY PHONE AT 1-888-383-2024...BY
EMAIL AT CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV...OR BY TWITTER USING #WXREPORT.

AMZ330-350-352-SCZ040-042>045-047-052-251000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL PLEASE LET US KNOW EITHER BY PHONE AT 1-888-383-2024...BY
EMAIL AT CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV...OR BY TWITTER USING #WXREPORT.

SCZ048>051-251000-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL PLEASE LET US KNOW EITHER BY PHONE AT 1-888-383-2024...BY
EMAIL AT CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV...OR BY TWITTER USING #WXREPORT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1058 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW JACKSONBORO       32.77N  80.46W
07/24/2012                   COLLETON           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            CLINIC DRIVE AND ACE BASIN PARKWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200518

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE HAMPTON            32.87N  81.12W
07/24/2012                   HAMPTON            SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF LOCUST STREET AND
            SHAW DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200519