Special Marine Warning 8, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
419 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THEN AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EXIT OFFSHORE
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS
IN PLACE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-3 TO -4 AS INDICATED BY LAPS ANALYSIS...AND WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALL RAIN
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A MUCH COLDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CANCEL IT IN A COUPLE HOURS ONCE WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE. THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. ALTHOUGH
THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE PROGGED TO DRY OUT RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES DOWNSLOPE DOMINATED...IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING FOR THE JET ENHANCED
CIRRUS DECK TO PASS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FULL SUN THICKNESS
SCHEMES YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT SUSPECT THESE
NUMBERS WILL BE COUNTERACTED SOMEWHAT BY THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CHILLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER-MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER
30S-LOWER 40S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER WELL
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND POTENTIAL INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH
THE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SO POPS WERE GENERALLY CAPPED AT 40-50
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED ON SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE  PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT
DOES NOT HAVE MUCH PUSH BEHIND IT DUE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
THUS STALLS OUT OVER OR NEAR THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING
THINGS UNSETTLED. WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM AND BREEZY WITH SOME
INSTABILITY LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST SMALL
RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME FAIRLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS TONIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LLWS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...DUE
TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP OFFSHORE AND LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED/GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO THE
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ENDING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WIND
REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEEK AS THE
GRADIENT PINCHES SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. PER COORDINATION WITH STATE AND FEDERAL FIRE
OFFICIALS A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
SITUATION. SHOULD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALL SHORT OF 0.25 INCHES AND
EVEN HIGHER WINDS DEVELOP...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE ISSUED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX AND HIGH MIN TEMPS WERE SET AT KCHS AND KSAV THURSDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE RERCHS AND RERSAV FOR DETAILS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 2/24...
KCHS...60/1992 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
KCHL...61/1927
KSAV...64/1980

RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 2/24...
KCHS...81/1996
KCHL...81/1930
KSAV...83/1982

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
601 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WINDSOR FOREST      31.98N  81.14W
02/24/2012                   CHATHAM            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS YARD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200017

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
603 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW WHITE BLUFF       31.99N  81.14W
02/24/2012                   CHATHAM            GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON TOP OF CARS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200018

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
611 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TORNADO          4 SE ISLANDTON          32.87N  80.88W
02/24/2012                   COLLETON           SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            1 HOME DESTROYED. ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. POWERLINES
            DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200019

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
613 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE ISLANDTON         32.89N  80.89W
02/24/2012                   COLLETON           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 HOMES DAMAGED. 1 SHED DESTROYED. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
            REPORTS ALONG 300 BLOCK OF FORKS ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200020

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARNETT                 32.61N  81.25W
02/24/2012                   HAMPTON            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HOPEWELL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200021

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW SHIRLEY           32.69N  81.32W
02/24/2012                   HAMPTON            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG AUGUSTA STAGE COACH ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200022