Special Marine Warning 65, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
INTO TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS THUS FAR BUT THE TRENDS ARE FOR THE CONVECTION
TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE SEEING SOME RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN A FEW HOURS
AGO BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR...TO GET
SOME OF THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY WHERE TRAINING OCCURS AND
STORMS FOCUS ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

LATER TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT
COMPLETELY AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN GA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY AROUND 70
INLAND AND LOW/MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES...ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN. GFS GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE OVERAGGRESSIVE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM. EXPECT DECENT INSTABILITY TO AGAIN DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN COVERAGE IN THE MORNING IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. THINK CAPE VALUES OF UP 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE OF WET MICROBURST AND SOME
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IN AREAS THAT DO NOT GET RAIN IN THE MORNING
AND GET SOME SUNSHINE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OFF
HEATING. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS MAINLY NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND SO
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR LIFT AND
PRECIPITABLE VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO A RANGE OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES IN THE SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE
LESS....ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SO CONTINUED WITH LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS AREA RANGING TO LIKELY VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTH. AGAIN
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE
SOUTH.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH AXES LOOK TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

ON THURSDAY...SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA TO SPREAD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WE THINK NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE MAINLY DRY
ON THURSDAY BUT A MORE MOIST ENE FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST GA COULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
LONG-TERM PERIODS. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR OUR
AREA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MAINTAIN A QUIETER PATTERN BUT KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS AND FAR SOUTHERN GA. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY EVENING.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 04-13Z TUESDAY FOR KCHS AND 05-13Z
TUESDAY FOR KSAV AS SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AS DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE VFR BUT LOW
CEILINGS OR FOG MAY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL DURING THE LATE NIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY AOB 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
AOB 4 FEET WILL TO CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS SEAS COULD BUILD TO 6 FT OVER OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RJB/MTE
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/MTE
MARINE...RJB/MTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
451 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-121000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
451 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-121000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
451 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>