Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
235 PM EST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SMALL WEATHER DISTURBANCES SLIDING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST CROSS THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NEAR 10 DOWNEAST. A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT BUT WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN WESTERN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE REACHING 15 TO 20 OVER THE
NORTH AND THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY HAVE
WINDS CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 MPH FOR A WHILE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WX PTRN TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND... UPPER SHORT WAVE
ADVERTISED TO SWING SEWRD FROM SW QUEBEC LATE FRI WILL INDUCE A
VERY WEAK SFC LOW OVR SRN QUEBEC FRI EVE WHICH IS THEN FCST TO
DROP SSEWRD ACROSS NRN VT/NH/WRN MAINE W/ ONLY SOME MINIMAL
IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SOME -SHSN ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS FRI
NGT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA...AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SFC
TROF WILL SLIDE SEWRD W/ NOTHING MORE THAN A FLURRIES EXPECTED...
NW FLOW WILL STIFFEN UP ACROSS THE FA BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON SAT
AS AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF CAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
JUST FAIRLY BRISK NW WINDS/TEMPS A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS AND A
FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE N. WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRES IS THEN PROGGED
TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES WELL W AND
SW OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MIGHT KICK OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE CWA. RIGHT NOW WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS POINT TO A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH COULD BE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GFS
AND GMOS FOR THE PERIOD AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED W/ SOME PSBL MVFR ACROSS THE
N IN ANY SC AND -SHSN WHICH IS FAVORED W/ NW FLOW AND CAA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF A
LOW PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST CREATES GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

SHORT TERM: MINIMAL SCA CONDS ARE PSBL SAT INTO SAT NGT IN NW
FLOW AND CAA.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/KHW