Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Caribou, ME

914 
WWUS51 KCAR 031830
SVSCAR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MEC003-031900-
/O.CON.KCAR.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120803T1900Z/
AROOSTOOK ME-
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GRAND ISLE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CONTACTING YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4734 6819 4734 6815 4729 6811 4720 6794
      4710 6787 4698 6821 4720 6836 4729 6843
      4730 6839 4732 6839 4737 6832 4737 6823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 234DEG 26KT 4727 6810

$$

FITZSIMMONS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
147 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: 17Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH GYX/CANADIAN RADARS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL
LOOKING FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG W/VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. INCLUDED NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY IN THE LATEST HWO FOR STRONG TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY EVENING AS FRONT MOVES EAST AND BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS
EAST. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE 6.0 TO
6.5C/KM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND DOWEAST REGIONS. SBCAPES
HITTING 2000 JOULES IN THESE AREAS AS WELL SO BUOYANCY IS THERE.
TWEAKED QPF USING NERFC AND GFS AND THEN ADJUSTED MANUALLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT...SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY XTNDS NE-SW FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC DOWN INTO
THE ERN GRT LAKES AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING SEWRD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS
BNDRY WILL INTERACT W/ TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND A HEALTHY
UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER THE THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTN W/ ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM
NW-SE LATER THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WHILE SHEAR VALS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SFC BASED CAPES JUMP UP NR
2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/E CENTRAL AREAS BY ERLY AFTN SO EXPECT
THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD STRONG TO SVR TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND
WILL CONT ENHANCED WORDING...

SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DYS...ANY ERLY AM FOG/STRATUS TODAY SHOULD
LIFT/BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS AM W/ OUR COASTAL AREAS BEING
THE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE. A MORE SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S N AND MID TO UPPER 80S S
AWAY FROM THE COAST...

WHILE DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM NW-SE TNGT...CLRG SKIES
AND LGT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING LIKELY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO REACH TDS AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AGAIN
TNGT. IN THESE SCENARIOS IT IS ALWAYS A RACE BTWN THE DRYING AND
COOLING AND WHICH FACTOR WINS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG
N AND CENTRAL W/ AREAS DOWNEAST AS THESE WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE
THE DRIER AIR... EXPECT LOWS TNGT TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
THE LAST FEW DYS...AT LEAST FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS W/ LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S N TO THE LOWERS 60S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL START OUT
MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS IT DOES SO. MUGGIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RETURN OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR INSTABILITY, THOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO
AROUND 30 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DOWNEAST AREAS WOULD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AS STORMS WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT; MODELS ARE
INDICATING PWATS OF 2+ INCHES AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE WARM CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE DEEP, AROUND
13-14 KFT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY, HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE LONGER-TERM MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE STUCK WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES IFR ATTM XCPT KPQI WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MVFR. THIS RATHER IRONIC CONSIDERING A TSTM DROPPED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ON PQI THU AFTN WHERE MOST OTHER AREAS SO LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...
IN ANY CASE...THINK KPQI WILL JOIN THE REST SHORTLY. IFR CONDS
SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO THE AM HRS SIMILAR TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS
W/ KBHB NEAR THE SRN COAST THE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE. DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND THE INFLUX OF LOWER TDS...LGT
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT AND CLR SKIES WILL LEAD TO GOOD
COOLING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NRN TAF
SITES W/ MORE WDSPRD FOG S...

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH EXCEPTION
OF IFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE
TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT. FOG
WILL CONT TO BE AN ISSUE THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE /GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/ BUT
WAVES LOOK TO REACH 5-6 FT LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND REMAIN SO INTO
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MEZ002-004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-041445-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY WEATHER INFORMATION TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU.

ANZ050>052-041445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ001-003-041445-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN MAINE AND WEST
CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEWITT