Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
817 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDLANDS AROUND THE CAE METRO AREA. INCREASED
POPS TO 60 PERCENT FOR 2-3 HOURS AS AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO
SUMTER AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE AFTER THIS
EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM 20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING
TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HELD DOWN
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S DUE TO HIGHER POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE DIFFUSE FRONT AND HIGH MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE
GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD. HAVE FORECASTED POPS OF
50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH BECAUSE OF TIMING
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEANS INDICATE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BECAUSE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGHING. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK VORT LOBE IN PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH REGION. THIS HELPED
TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG. WENT VFR BUT INCLUDED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY CAE...
CUB AND OGB TAF SITES UNTIL 02Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY
12Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. ACTUALLY THINK SKIES
MAY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS PREVIOUS NIGHT.
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG BUT NOT MUCH STRATUS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO STRATUS CEILINGS EASTERN TAF SITES OF CAE AND CUB. BUT WITH
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO REST OF SITES OF AGS...OGB AND DNL
WILL HAVE CEILINGS BELOW 1 KFT THERE. ALSO WILL GO WITH IFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT AGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 08Z-14Z SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE ISSUES DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS...AT TIMES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
417 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-190830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
417 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
857 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SCZ028-037-190145-
CALHOUN-RICHLAND-
857 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RICHLAND AND CALHOUN
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 849 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...13 MILES WEST OF EASTOVER...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE INCH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
EASTOVER...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 8098 3387 8102 3390 8102 3390 8101
      3391 8101 3394 8101 3407 8073 3376 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 254DEG 15KT 3389 8089