Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MOISTURE FROM WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND RAINFALL SEEING SOME COOLING. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND IS EXPECTED TO CEASE OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL STILL BE DIFFICULT
TO TIME ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY
ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST POPS TO THE EAST WHERE
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED. MODELS TRENDING
TOWARD A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TUESDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.00 INCHES. ALTHOUGH
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER.
EXPECT HIGHER CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOS CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK. REGION
CONTINUES TO HAVE SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. A FEW WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED. CONTINUED WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND CSRA...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF AGS/DNL AND
PERSISTING AT THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF CAE/CUB SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH
AND KEEP A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT OGB. FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET SO MUCH DEPENDS ON RAINFALL. AS SUCH HAVE
REMAINED WITHOUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITH SUNRISE AND CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
442 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-300845-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
442 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-292000-
AIKEN-BURKE-RICHMOND-
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RICHMOND...BURKE AND
AIKEN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HEPHZIBAH TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
HEPHZIBAH AND WAYNESBORO...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8170 3292 8201 3302 8228 3340 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 275DEG 8KT 3334 8197 3301 8222

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

SCZ027-036-037-292245-
CALHOUN-LEXINGTON-ORANGEBURG-
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON...CALHOUN
AND ORANGEBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 THROUGH SWANSEA
TO PELION...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ST. MATTHEWS...
WOODFORD...
NORTH...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8120 3361 8124 3366 8119 3370 8128
      3377 8131 3381 8087 3378 8082 3378 8081
      3376 8077 3357 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 281DEG 10KT 3373 8086 3370 8124

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

SCZ027-036-037-292245-
CALHOUN-LEXINGTON-ORANGEBURG-
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON...CALHOUN
AND ORANGEBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ST. MATTHEWS
THROUGH SWANSEA TO PELION...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ST. MATTHEWS...
WOODFORD...
NORTH...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8120 3361 8124 3366 8119 3370 8128
      3377 8131 3381 8087 3378 8082 3378 8081
      3376 8077 3357 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 281DEG 10KT 3373 8086 3370 8124