Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
444 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SCENARIO IS A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE MOST UNSTABLE TIME OF THE
DAY. BOTH SPC AND NSSL WRF MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY THIS EVENING...IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
CAN HOLD TOGETHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL
ADJUST FORECAST UP DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
AND STALLING IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE CHANCE STILL APPEARS LIMITED BY SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL
ADVERTISE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SO WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR TUESDAY. MONDAY MAX TEMPS QUITE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT...COOLING A BIT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS
GENERALLY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DRYING MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. GENERALLY LOW CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON CURRENTLY WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO KICK OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TONIGHT AND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
DUE TO TIMING AND AERIAL COVERAGE ISSUES ...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION
AT TAF SITES THIS EVENING OR MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SORT OF LIMITED OVERNIGHT BUT TAF SITES OF AGS AND OGB MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VBSYS IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISAPPEAR QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN
COMES UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-020830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
426 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

SCZ018-025-026-012345-
EDGEFIELD-MCCORMICK-SALUDA-
701 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
EDGEFIELD...MCCORMICK AND SALUDA COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 659 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...7 MILES NORTH OF MCCORMICK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
MCCORMICK...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8234 3406 8232 3398 8230 3402 8224
      3399 8222 3398 8219 3399 8215 3399 8205
      3396 8204 3396 8202 3405 8194 3401 8177
      3374 8206 3398 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 300DEG 24KT 3401 8225