Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
717 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN THE UPSTATE OF SC.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL BE CRESTING THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEING SHOWN ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS
TO WHETHER THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS/CSRA TONIGHT. THE NAM AND SPCWRF INDICATE THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. GFS NOT QUITE
AS OPTIMISTIC...ALTHOUGH EVEN IT SHOWS A LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS BEFORE 06Z. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT BY
06Z ACROSS THE CWA. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN CWA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN BY MORNING. DECIDED TO USE A
MODEL BLEND ON LOW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD COVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY PLEASANT SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH...LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND MID 80S CSRA. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOWER 60S.

MONDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS 85-90. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. PRETTY WARM NIGH WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BECOME SORT OF UNSETTLED. SO NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
BEGINS TO SUPPRESS UPPER RIDGE IN THE EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LINGERS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ANYWHERE FROM A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS FINALLY PUSHES A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST
BUT NORTH OF OUR REGION. BUT APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP
PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD...GIVING HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SATURDAY FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO GIVE DRY WEATHER. AGAIN HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE LOWER 60S BUT COOL TO THE 50S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATING SCTD SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS CNTL GA INTO SRN SC. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES OF AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF
SITES APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. CIGS APPROACHING MVFR CRITERIA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCAL WRF
MODEL/NAM INDICATE MID-LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING SO
CHANCE OF THUNDER AFTER 01Z SUNDAY APPEARS SLIM. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
SOME MID CLOUDS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS SFC WINDS SWING TO THE NW AND N. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. WILL INDICATE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 16Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
406 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-010815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
406 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

SCZ020-026-010015-
NEWBERRY-SALUDA-
724 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NEWBERRY AND SALUDA
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...10 MILES NORTH OF CHAPPELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
NEWBERRY AND PROSPERITY...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
DIME SIZE HAIL...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SOME LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8191 3430 8190 3432 8186 3435 8183
      3435 8181 3437 8178 3422 8147 3397 8182
      3409 8192 3413 8188 3415 8190 3419 8192
      3420 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 317DEG 22KT 3431 8191