Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE STATE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS HAS
INTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN SOME OF THE CELLS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TREND AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY
FOR SKY COVER AND POPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MAINLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PALMETTO STATE...HOWEVER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
UPSTATE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THERE WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER
MECHANISM. AS SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS UPWARD AND ADJUSTED POPS
TO ALIGN BETTER WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT HAVE NOT INCREASE POPS
MUCH AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...EXPECT 50-60 KT H850 MB WINDS. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THAT
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LAGGING WELL
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT.

THE MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN SC BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT...THEREBY SLOWING ITS SPEED. THE FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THUS THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL IF THE MOISTURE RETURN IS GREAT ENOUGH.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT TO HAVE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDWEEK WITH THE RETURN OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CAE/CUB HAS STARTED
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 13Z.
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL ERODE WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY TS OR CB LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
434 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-030945-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
434 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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