Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TN/KY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SO
CUT POPS BACK NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THOSE STORMS AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOME ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN/DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. GOOD SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE VERY LATE TONIGHT. MILD LOWS OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING CLOSE TO THE
CWA. HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
THAT TIME...THUS LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT TO SEE A RAPID
DECREASE IN ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY EXPECTING TO SEE A
COOLDOWN IN TEMPS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS REACHING BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT
BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD...AND WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. ONCE
THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH...SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER IN
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.
THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG...WITH A GOOD
COLD PUSH BEHIND IT...ALONG WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE THAT THE MAIN FRONT IS WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER SUPPORT. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...ALTHOUGH IF THE UPPER ENERGY CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT CAN
NOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORMS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRYING BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE END OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...POSSIBLY SEVERE...TONIGHT.

LATEST RADAR HAS A NEW BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE N AND NE OF DNL/AGS...MOVING NE. WILL
INCLUDE A NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT CAE/CUB/OGB TO HANDLE
THAT.

MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL TO OUR NW. IT APPEARS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL TREND
TOWARDS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE INTO OUR FA AS THE MAIN UPPER
DYNAMICS PULLS OFF TO OUR NORTH. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ALONG WITH A STRONG BUT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WILL HANDLE PRECIP CHANCE AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH A TEMPO GROUP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SAT NT WITH PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...DCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-012200-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
453 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1107 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

SCZ030-035>037-041-010500-
AIKEN-BAMBERG-BARNWELL-CALHOUN-ORANGEBURG-
1107 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
BAMBERG...AIKEN...CALHOUN...ORANGEBURG AND BARNWELL COUNTIES THROUGH
100 AM...

AT 1100 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN AIKEN COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO ORANGEBURG COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST NEAR 50 MPH.

SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 8169 3371 8159 3354 8126 3364 8053
      3363 8054 3361 8052 3317 8079 3313 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 264DEG 48KT 3351 8106