Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY IS FINALLY
BEGINNING ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. BATCH OF
CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN GA AND SC HAS ROBBED SOME OF THE AREA OF
ITS MOISTURE. BETTER MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT DEFINED BY A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF THE
UPSTATE. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN ISSUES BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN COLD
POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL BE CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPS SLIGHTLY. EVEN
SO...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD CORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. DRYING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...NOT REALLY EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REAL DIFFERENCE WILL BE
IN THE DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS CLOSE
TO OUR NORTH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPSTATE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH THAT
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLUMB OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER CLOSED LOW ACROSS KY/TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE
BECOME VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MOST
OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LOW COUNTRY AND GRAND
STRAND. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MIDLANDS UNTIL 9 PM. AS CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. STABILITY PARAMETERS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY 19Z
WITH LIS AROUND -5 TO -7...CAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...TT IN THE
MID 50S AND WBZ AROUND 8000 FEET. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT
RISK. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ONCE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WIND SHIFT/LOWER DEWPOINTS...MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.  MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-251830-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-
EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-
ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
217 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ040-063>065-077-251830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-
217 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             5 ENE SALLEY            33.60N 81.23W
03/24/2012  E1.00 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            CONVENIENCE STORE REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE HAIL
            COVERED THE GROUND OF SOME OF THE HOMES NEARBY.

&&

VAUGHAN