Areal Flood Advisory 5, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORM GENERATION CONTINUES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
THE SOUTH. DECIDED TO GO WITH 60-80 PERCENT POPS THOSE LOCATIONS
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND WILL KEEP THE 40 PERCENT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASED DEWPOINTS
AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AIR MASS APPEARS TO REMAIN MODERATELY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME DRYING SUGGESTED BY MODELS ESPECIALLY GFS...HOWEVER
EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...NEAR 1.5
INCHES AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST MOIST 850MB FLOW AHEAD
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TRIGGERS LIKELY TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER
TIMING OF WAVES DIFFICULT. FORECAST HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY...POSSIBLY LATE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE. CHANCE
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY EAST MIDLANDS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LOCATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE TROUGH FAR ENOUGH OFF
THE COAST THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY
WILL NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA VERY MUCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ON LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEXT 2-3 HOURS AT TAF SITES BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR OGB WHERE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 01Z OR 02Z.
BUT WITH THE SUN SETTING...THE HEATING WILL BE GONE AND THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE NIGHT. WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND IT SHOULD FAVOR MORE IFR STRATUS CEILING THAN IFR
FOG. WILL GO MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT WILL HAVE LOWER IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND OGB. AFTER 14Z
TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AGAIN BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND AERIAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-152230-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
623 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             4 NNW COPE              33.43N 81.04W
05/14/2012  M1.00 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 4 MILES NW OF COPE.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
656 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N DENMARK             33.34N 81.14W
05/14/2012                   BAMBERG            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 321.

0645 PM     HAIL             BAMBERG                 33.30N 81.03W
05/14/2012  M1.00 INCH       BAMBERG            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE CITY OF
            BAMBERG.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 ESE ROWESVILLE        33.36N 80.79W
05/14/2012  M1.00 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL EAST OF ROWESVILLE.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             4 E BAMBERG             33.30N 80.96W
05/14/2012  M1.00 INCH       BAMBERG            SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL EAST OF BAMBERG NEAR THE EDISTO RIVER.
            SMALL LIMBS DOWN.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
817 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW LANCASTER         34.67N 80.80W
05/14/2012                   LANCASTER          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON JB DENTON RD AT THE BRIDGE.

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SW PAGELAND           34.68N 80.51W
05/14/2012                   LANCASTER          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON NATURE RESERVE RD.

&&

DS