Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Columbia, SC

171 
WGUS82 KCAE 111718
FLSCAE

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

SCC063-079-111728-
/O.EXP.KCAE.FA.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-120611T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEXINGTON SC-RICHLAND SC-
118 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR RICHLAND
AND LEXINGTON COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 877 6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3389 8086 3386 8100 3388 8100 3388 8102
      3387 8104 3385 8104 3384 8105 3401 8115
      3409 8096

$$

LAMBERTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
WEST...MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY.
THIS...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES....TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION. WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH TODAY. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES LITTLE RETURNS OVER OUR FA...BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NE AND CENT GA MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA IN THE NEAR TERM. LATER
TODAY...WHEN SOME DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS AND THE UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES...WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ARRAY
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL POPS BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...PROVIDING
FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHIFT
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE MAINTAINING VERY
HIGH VALUES OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO WANE SOME WITH DIURNAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIKELY TO POSSIBLY CATEGORICAL POPS
APPEAR IN ORDER TUE. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND AREA OF HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL TREND DOWN SOME
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL GOOD CHANCE...BETTER CHANCE SE FA. UPPER
TROUGH/BEST MOISTURE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. MODELS DEVELOP
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TROUGH OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A N TO
NE FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT TO ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES.
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON THIS MORNING AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES
EAST OUT OF GEORGIA. THIS LINE SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z-15Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
ADDITION BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAF SITES. A BREAK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN AS
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN. AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAF SITES. FLOODING WAS
AN ISSUE YESTERDAY WITH SLOWER MOVING ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STORM
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AS OPPOSED TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS YESTERDAY. SO HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT IT WILL NOT
LINGER TO GIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL LOWER
CIGS TO IFR-MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...DCM
NEAR TERM...DCM
SHORT TERM...DCM
LONG TERM...DCM
AVIATION...TTH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-121000-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
212 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.