Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Billings, MT

August 6, 2012Yellowstone County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this special weather statement at Aug 6, 2012, 4:27 PM MDT for Yellowstone County, Montana. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 6, 2012, 4:27 PM MDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired: Aug 6, 2012, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT

County Yellowstone County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 6, 3:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 3:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
A SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD US FROM IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS EASILY CONFIRMED FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THIS
MONSOONAL IMPULSE WILL CRASH THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT THIS EVENING
SPREADING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE W/SW PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY
REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST. SO WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PLAINS. I AM
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FREQUENT DRY LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY IS
LOW TO MODERATE AND FORCING DOES NOT SEEM THAT STRONG. BUT ANY
LIGHTNING WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH A MIX OF GARDEN VARIETY WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY FUELS/CONDITIONS. THUS...RED FLAG WILL
CONTINUE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
DRY LIGHTNING/LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHTS WEATHER
FEATURE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXITING SYSTEM DEVELOPS. WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL BE JUST BETTER THAN MARGINAL IN MANY CASES.
IN ADDITION...I DO NOT WANT TO CONFUSE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE FOR DIFFERENT WEATHER
ATTRIBUTES AND AFFECT A LARGER PORTION OF THE EAST. WE WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATEHR HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST UNTIL THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS CANCELLED AND EVALUATE WIND EXPECTATIONS FOR
TUESDAY AT THAT TIME.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER MONSOONAL TYPE WAVE
IN LINE TO IMPACT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES UP
FROM NEVADA AND IDAHO IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...DRY LOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. SO HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
CONCERN. HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 591 DM AND 594 DM IN OUR AREA. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

BLENDED POP FORECASTS WITH ALLBLEND AND MRA GUIDANCE. BLENDED
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE BEST-PERFORMING 12Z
GUIDANCE...CONSALL / CONSMOS RESPECTIVELY. BASED REMAINING
FORECASTS ON THE GFS. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL EARLY ON. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
WILL TRACK ALONG THE RIDGE. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE CWA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE PATTERN UNSETTLED DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BRS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A KBIL TO
KSHR LINE. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY WEST OF THIS
LINE. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BRS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/096 063/096 065/094 062/091 061/091 061/095 061/092
    31/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    31/B    11/B    22/T
LVM 054/094 053/093 055/090 053/088 053/089 052/091 051/088
    31/U    02/T    21/B    22/T    31/B    11/B    22/T
HDN 062/098 060/097 062/097 062/094 061/093 061/097 060/095
    31/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    31/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 069/097 065/095 067/096 064/093 063/091 063/095 064/093
    22/T    01/U    21/B    22/T    31/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 065/097 062/095 063/096 063/092 062/091 062/094 061/094
    22/T    01/U    01/U    22/T    31/U    11/U    12/T
BHK 063/094 061/091 062/092 061/089 060/088 060/090 061/090
    12/T    11/U    11/B    22/T    32/T    11/U    12/T
SHR 060/094 057/092 059/093 057/090 057/088 056/092 057/091
    21/U    01/U    11/B    22/T    31/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 117-123>129.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 274-284.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 3:32 PM MDT, 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-072145-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
332 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW HUMIDITY...AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BRING DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WEST OF A LINE
FROM SHERIDAN TO ROUNDUP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TEENS.

DRY LIGHTNING MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 6, 3:41 PM MDT, 46 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

MTZ034-035-039-062230-
EASTERN CARBON MT-NORTHERN STILLWATER MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
341 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARBON...NORTHEASTERN
STILLWATER AND SOUTHWESTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 334 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS. THE
STRONGEST STORM WAS 25 MILES WEST OF BILLINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

THE INITIAL PUSH OF STRONG WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND GET
INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF BILLINGS AROUND 4 PM MDT...THEN INTO DOWNTOWN
AROUND 405 PM MDT AND INTO THE HEIGHTS AROUND 410 PM MDT.

A SECOND PUSH OF STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL COME FROM THE
WEST AND IMPACT MOLT AND LAUREL AROUND 4 PM MDT AND THE BILLINGS AREA
AROUND 430 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4613 10818 4552 10814 4552 10818 4549 10819
      4549 10830 4547 10832 4546 10907 4612 10910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 185DEG 24KT 4564 10872

Special weather statement, Aug 6, 4:27 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
427 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

MTZ035-062330-
YELLOWSTONE MT-
427 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 420 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAUREL...OR 14 MILES WEST OF BILLINGS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE
BEFORE THE RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

THE STRONG WINDS WITH THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BILLINGS WEST END AROUND 445 PM MDT.
BILLINGS AND BILLINGS HEIGHTS AROUND 500 PM MDT.

THE RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE NEAR...
BILLINGS WEST END AROUND 500 PM MDT.
BILLINGS AND BILLINGS HEIGHT AROUND 510 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4593 10836 4558 10830 4557 10880 4564 10878
      4561 10883 4569 10890 4596 10889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 252DEG 9KT 4572 10876

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 6, 3:55 AM MDT	Red Flag Warning	BYZ	Big Horn, Carbon, Gallatin, Golden Valley, Madison, Musselshell and 5 more	17 hr
Aug 6, 3:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BYZ	Yellowstone	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.