Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Billings, MT

485 
WWUS85 KBYZ 082045
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

MTZ133-090100-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120409T0100Z/
SIOUX RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
245 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN MONTANA...FIRE ZONE....133

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

* WIND...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

469 
WWUS85 KBYZ 090053
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
653 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

MTZ133-090200-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120409T0100Z/
SIOUX RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
653 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECOVER THIS
EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 60 TO 80 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH 9 PM MDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

UPDATE TO ZFP AND WRKAFP. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH E MT...HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING POPS.
DEWPOINTS WERE LOW...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z. THUS CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS THAT RETAINED THEIR SNOW COVER THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT
BACK THE PATCHY FOG TO W OF A RYEGATE...COLUMBUS...S BRIDGER LINE.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WAS
TO LOWER THEM A BIT OVER THE NE BIG HORNS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
IN PLACE.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARMER AND DRY UNDER A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL HELP CONTINUE AN OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC THROUGH THAT IS SET TO BRING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TROUBLESOME...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN MONTANA...AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE FAR-REACHING
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA...OVER THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH WILL HELP INHIBIT MIXING ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOME. THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
WESTWARD PUSH OF THIS COOLER AIR AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FROM BILLINGS AND
EAST...AND ESPECIALLY IN BAKER AND EKALAKA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TARGET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCING OUR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY PULL OUT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY...PRE-FRONTAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SWING SURFACE
WINDS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...PROMOTING BETTER
MIXING AND SOME DOWNSLOPING. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...AND SEE NO REASON NOT
TO FOLLOW SUITE.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUS HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO BRING THE FORECAST INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE INCREASE IN POPS
MADE BY THE MID SHIFT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AS THE DYNAMIC 500 MB
LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WILL
BE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST
BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH LOOKS
TO PROMOTE SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME COLD FRONT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN
MONTANA. HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FROM BILLINGS EAST GIVEN THE COLD FRONT
TIMING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO PIN DOWN
DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND TIMING...AS THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW TRACK WOULD LIKELY DRY SLOT A PORTION OF MONTANA.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS BROAD BRUSHED FOR NOW TO INDICATE THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. BEYOND
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION. THUS HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES IN THE POPS. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF KBIL. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/051 033/054 034/065 041/075 042/062 040/060 037/056
    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    44/T    33/W    32/W
LVM 023/050 028/052 030/065 037/071 038/056 035/057 035/053
    00/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    44/W    43/W    23/W
HDN 028/053 032/057 032/067 038/078 041/066 037/063 034/060
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    45/T    42/W    23/W
MLS 028/052 031/053 030/063 036/072 042/066 039/062 035/060
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    34/T    33/W    32/W
4BQ 027/052 030/055 030/067 035/072 040/065 037/062 035/061
    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    35/T    33/W    33/W
BHK 027/050 028/050 027/062 034/066 040/065 037/059 034/058
    00/N    00/B    00/U    00/N    34/T    33/W    22/W
SHR 025/052 029/056 032/069 037/076 040/064 037/061 034/057
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    35/T    43/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS