Small Craft Advisory 90, NWS Buffalo, NY

507 
WHUS71 KBUF 301943
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

LOZ044-302045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-121030T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
343 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LEZ040-302045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-121030T2200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
343 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LOZ042-043-310300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-121031T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
343 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

148 
WHUS71 KBUF 310119
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
919 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

LOZ042-043-310230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-121031T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
919 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED.

$$

APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF EXTRATROPICAL SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE
RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A REMNANT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS. ONLY HEADLINES REMAINING WILL BE A FLOOD
WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WNY...AS LOCAL RIVERS REMAIN QUITE
HIGH...AND RUNOFF FROM OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

A LOOK AT THE SFC MAP THIS MORNING DISPLAYS SANDY SOUTH OF STATE
COLLEGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PA BORDER. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SLOT PUSHING FARTHER WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OVER LAKE
ONTARIO CREATING SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER.

RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY SMALL SEGMENTED BANDS OF RAIN ADVANCING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME
OF THESE SEGMENTS CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN. EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE RAIN TO FALL THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SCATTERING OUT
SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PA TOWARDS THE FAR
SW CORNER OF PA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WE WILL
HAVE A BREEZE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SANDY'S CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
WEAKENING. EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX ACROSS WNY TODAY...WHILE TO OUR
EAST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT WE COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL HAVE QUITE THE RANGE...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
CLOUDY SOUTHWESTERN HILLS...AND 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS WNY. WARMEST
AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE AN EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL WARM AREAS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. WILL ALSO EXPECT THIS WARM TREND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE AND TOWARDS BUFFALO WHERE A SPOT 60 DEGREE READING IS
POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE CENTER
OF REMNANT SANDY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. LIGHT RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
40S...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SW NEW YORK STATE. A LOOK AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER DISPLAY THE FREEZING
LEVEL LOWERING TO JUST 1-2K FEET...WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE CONTINUING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN. AS THE WEAKENING STORM LIFTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A SFC TROUGH WILL DROP OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALL BE SUPPORTED BY A PAIR OF MID LEVEL
VORTICES THAT WILL PERFORM THE FUJIWHARA 'DANCE' OVER SOUTHERNMOST
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME
ENHANCED BY -2C H85 AIR CROSSING THE 12C WATERS OF LKS ERIE AND ONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES WITH CHC
POPS ELSEWHERE. ALSO...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...THE COLDER
AIR SHOULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A SMALL ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE DOUBLE BARRELLED H5 VORTEX WILL DUMBBELL TO THE
EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHILE WEAK RIDGING WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF
FAIR WEATHER...BUT DESPITE THE RIDGING OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BREAKING THINGS DOWN...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ACROSS OUR
REGION AS LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF
-4C H5 AIR OVER THE LAKES WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN PARTICULAR...
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT LITTLE IN
WAY OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WORK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUR SKIES AND
ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. WHILE FAIR WEATHER WILL
RETURN... IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID
WEST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR OUR AREA BUT FAIR WEATHER WOULD PERSIST. THE
SYSTEM WILL NOT BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH...SO THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z MAINLY MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL SEGMENTED BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND ANY OF THESE SEGMENTS MAY CONTAIN
BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
THIS MORNING DIMINISHING TO LARGELY UNDER 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL PLACE -RA IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN TAF SITES...TRANSITIONING TO VCSH AS TIMING EACH SEGMENT OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL BACK TO
MVFR/IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ADVANCE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS SANDY
BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
EXTRATROPICAL SANDY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL DOWNGRADE OUR STORMS
ON THE LAKES TO GALES...WHILE HAVING SCA ON THE RIVERS.

SANDY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH WAVES
ALSO DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>013-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

NYZ003>008-014-311115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
708 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010>013-019>021-085-311115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
708 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-311115-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
708 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-311115-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
708 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF