Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Buffalo, NY

447 
WHUS71 KBUF 200200
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

LEZ040-041-201000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121020T0700Z-121021T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO
4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-201000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121020T1300Z-121021T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

890 
WHUS71 KBUF 200801
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

LEZ040-041-201600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
401 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-201600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121020T1300Z-121021T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
401 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

948 
WHUS71 KBUF 201401
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

LOZ045-202215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1001 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET TODAY BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATER TONIGHT
  AND SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-202215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121021T0600Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1001 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-202215-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121021T0600Z-121021T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1001 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-202215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1001 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-202215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1001 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

431 
WHUS71 KBUF 201949
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

LOZ043-044-210400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121021T0300Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-210400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121021T0300Z-121021T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-210200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-210400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-210400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

516 
WHUS71 KBUF 210155
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

LEZ020-210300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

$$

LEZ040-041-210800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-211000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121021T0300Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.121021T0300Z-121021T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

974 
WHUS71 KBUF 210753
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

LEZ040-041-211400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T1400Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-211600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
353 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

190 
WHUS71 KBUF 211358
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

LEZ040-041-212000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T2000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-212200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-212200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-212000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121021T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

807 
WHUS71 KBUF 211949
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

LEZ040-041-220100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
349 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-220100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
349 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-220400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
349 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-220400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
349 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

271 
WHUS71 KBUF 220111
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
911 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-220215-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
911 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LOZ044-045-220800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
911 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-220800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
911 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

093 
WHUS71 KBUF 220741
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

LOZ043-220845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
341 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LOZ044-045-221400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
341 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

646 
WHUS71 KBUF 221401
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

LOZ044-045-221515-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-121022T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1001 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES. ON SUNDAY ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
STEADIER SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN LEWIS COUNTY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AS THE VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE EASES INTO EASTERN NY.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA A DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
GENESEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S IN THE DRY SLOT THANKS TO SOME SUNSHINE...WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FARTHER EAST BENEATH THE THICKER CLOUD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON
BY 12Z SAT. A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN NY BY ABOUT 06Z. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING...PEAKING BY LATE EVENING OR
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY. AFTER 06Z...DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND ANOTHER WEAK DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY
MAX WILL BRING AND END TO THE SHOWERS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FARTHER EAST THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN IN WESTERN NY. SOME OF
THE NEW 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NCEP NAM AND OUR
LOCAL WORKSTATION WRF TRIES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE JUST GONE WITH VERY LOW CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP AROUND 50 WITH SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

ON SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
STRONGER ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN
NY FROM LATE MORNING ON. THE AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
RISING TO AROUND 20K FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY. INITIAL SSW FLOW WILL
PLACE MOST OF THIS ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND THE REGIONAL
MUNICIPALITY OF NIAGARA ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER. BY LATE
AFTERNOON FLOW VEERS CLOSER TO 230 DEGREES...WHICH WILL SPREAD LAKE
ENHANCEMENT INTO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS IN THE REGION EVEN WITHOUT LAKE EFFECT...BUT SHOWERS IN THE
AREAS OUTLINED ABOVE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT AND PRODUCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +2C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...SO
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BARELY
50 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER EAST THE COOLER AIR IS SLOWER
TO ARRIVE...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SUN FOR AWHILE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSE TO 60 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ROCHESTER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED WILL BE FOUND JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY SPIRALING AROUND THE
FEATURE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE LOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING POKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROP TO ABOUT +1C OVER
LAKE ONTARIO...AND +2C OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM
FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT RAIN...HOWEVER LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY.
MOISTURE DEPTH PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ONGOING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY NOT BE
OCCURRING RIGHT AT 00Z SUNDAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH
IS NOT AS GREAT...BUT THROUGH THE EVENING MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASE SUCH THAT AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL SOON SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCE
RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO TOO.

WITH THE SFC RIDGE POKING NORTHWARD WINDS WILL BE SSW AND THIS WILL
BRING THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TOWARDS BUFFALO AND POSSIBLY JUST NORTH
OF WATERTOWN...AND TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO START. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT BRINGING LAKE RAINS SOUTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE RAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL HAVE
LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH LIKELY POPS RESERVED FOR THE
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS THICK ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPIRALING INTO QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH SYNOPTIC SHOWERS FOCUSING TOWARDS THIS REGION. THIS
WILL LEAVE JUST LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OFF BOTH LAKES...THOUGH
GREATEST CHCS WILL BE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MODERATE ALOFT AND WITH CLOUDS LIKELY REMAINING THICK ACROSS
THE REGION HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
MANY AREAS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH A FEW SPOT
60F READINGS.

SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE IN THE 1000-700 HPA LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WANE
ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE NAM
VEERS WINDS IN THE 1000-900 LAYER TO A WNW FLOW. WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION IN MIND WILL GO MORE WITH UNIFORM LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDEST VALLEYS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ANY HIGHER ELEVATION
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MANY AREAS.
WITH THE SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND WITH MANY
AREAS TOPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN LATE TO THE WEST...AND THEN THROUGH THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO EXTEND EASTWARD. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...USHERING IN
COOLER AIR TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

THE GLOBAL MODELS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US...WITH
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER PAC NW.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS OF THE GFS,ECMWF, CMC
BRING A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A CENTRAL PLAINS DISTURBANCE INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARM SOUTHERLY AIR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...BATTLING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM A CENTRAL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME NORTH TO SOUTH
FLUCTUATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW TO OUR WEST BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.

WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY...A BALMY DAY IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WARM TO +12-13C ACROSS THE REGION AND
IF WE CAN SQUEEZE A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE OUT WE WILL WARM SOME 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE MOISTER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY...AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE WARMTH SOME.

WHILE THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FROM THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND LEAVING FRIDAY CHILLY
AND UNSETTLED. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND LEAVES MUCH OF THURSDAY
NIGHT DRY AND BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL MODEL
RUNS...NARROW INTO A BETTER TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT.

WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING ALOFT...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIMINISHING EXPECT SFC HIGHS TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER...AND POSSIBLY MUCH COOLER IF
THE FASTER ECMWF VERIFIES. OF NOTE BOTH MODELS ONLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA TO AROUND +2-4C BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY BE TO WARM FOR MUCH LAKE
RESPONSE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
20Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
NY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME SPOTTY
IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER WEST...A DRY SLOT HAS
LEFT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS DRY SLOT WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PIVOTS BACK INTO WESTERN NY.

THIS EVENING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
NY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THIS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO KEEP CIGS/VSBY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY MVFR IS LIKELY AT
TIMES. AFTER 06Z THE INITIAL SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUE NORTH INTO CANADA...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER DRY SLOT WORKING
INTO WESTERN NY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END WITH VFR
IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTH OUT OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AGAIN...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AGAIN
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF MVFR...WITH LESSER
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO BEGIN BY AFTERNOON ON 220-230
FLOW...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY FROM JUST NORTH OF KBUF TO KIAG WITH
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LOCAL IFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR EXCEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LOCAL MVFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WAVES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE LOW PULLS OUT
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON
LAKE ERIE...WHILE INCREASING ON LAKE ONTARIO AS FETCH IMPROVES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ONTARIO
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
505 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-200915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
505 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-200915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
505 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR