Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Buffalo, NY

524 
WHUS71 KBUF 111355
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

SLZ022-112200-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.121011T2000Z-121012T0800Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EDT FRIDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-112200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.121011T1600Z-121012T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-112200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-112200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-112200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
955 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

850 
WHUS71 KBUF 111955
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

LOZ030-120200-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121012T0200Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-120200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121012T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.121011T2000Z-121012T0800Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
355 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

782 
WHUS71 KBUF 120147
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

LOZ030-120300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121012T0200Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

SLZ022-120300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121012T0800Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LEZ020-121000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121012T1400Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-121000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-121000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
947 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

877 
WHUS71 KBUF 120757
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

LEZ020-120900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121012T1400Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LEZ040-041-121200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-121600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-121012T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
CONTINUE TO FORM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EAST OF THE LAKES...WITH SHOWERS
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
DISSIPATING RAIN TO THE NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A MUCH COLDER NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LITTLE ELSE TO THE LEE OF LAKE
ERIE. WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS BACK MORE TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THE
AXIS OF COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIP TO THE NORTH TROUGH
THE DAY...WEAKENING THE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AND LAKE EFFECTS.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. THE WIND WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG THE UPPER SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKESHORE...LATE TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC AND AMPLIFY...DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED GIVEN ITS CONTINENTAL ORIGINS...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO STILL JUST COOL ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOCALLY
STEADIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS...EXCEPT A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN LAKE ENHANCED AREAS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH
COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND
ALSO ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ELIMINATE THIS BY MIDDAY HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO
DEVELOP DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -5C WHICH
WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...
SETTING UP AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES HAS A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION MAKING A RUN AT THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY END THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COOLER INTERIOR
COUNTIES WITH A HARD FREEZE...AND MAY EVEN END IT ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS WELL. STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE WATCH...
BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUTLINED IN THE HWO. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT AT THIS TIME THEY
APPEAR THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW QUICKLY INCREASING. AFTER A VERY CHILLY
START...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
50S ACROSS WESTERN NY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
FARTHER EAST. AFTER A CLEAR MORNING CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE +10C TO +12C RANGE...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTER A VERY CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE LAKE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOW
TO MID 40S INLAND. ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH EVEN SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST TO ROCHESTER.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING A MODERATELY STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A
WING OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL KEEP
THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS EXTENDING DOWN TO JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET
OFF THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SOUNDING WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT AND POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE POOR MIXING MAY KEEP WINDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A TRAILING LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD. TEMPS ALOFT PULL
BACK SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY INFLUENCE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME
LOWERING BUT STILL VFR CEILINGS AS WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT BAND LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN SUCH THAT AS IT APPROACHES KART WILL BE
IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY...THUS WILL HAVE VCSH QUALIFIER 18Z-22Z.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR IN LIKELY SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LLWS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED AS
WINDS AGAIN STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE LAKES...SO THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND FRIDAY EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WINTER IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER...SO LETS TAKE A LOOK AT THE
GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS THAT ULTIMATELY DETERMINE OUR TREND IN
TEMPS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING A
VERY WEAK ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN
THAT AREA AND THE OVERLYING H85 WIND ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT A VERY
WEAK EL NINO MAY BE IN PLACE. AN ENSEMBLE OF LONG RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT WEAK EL NINO MAY STRENGTHEN HEADING INTO
THE LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER MONTHS. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS WILL
KEEP A VERY WEAK ENSO EVENT IN PLACE WITH THE ODDS IN FAVOR OF A
WEAK EL NINO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER. WHETHER THE ENSO PHASE IS
NEUTRAL OR A WEAK EL NINO...THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS GENERALLY THE
SAME.

UNLIKE A LA NINA EVENT WHEN THERE IS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AN EL NINO TYPICALLY FEATURES AN
EXTENDED PACIFIC JET THAT DRIVES STRONG STORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THE STRONGER THE EL NINO...THE STRONGER THE PACIFIC JET. SUCH A
PATTERN TENDS TO BLOCK THE SOUTHERN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR FROM THE
HIGH LATITUDES...OR AT LEAST KEEPS THEM TO A MINIMUM. DURING WEAK
EVENTS THOUGH...THERE IS LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION
IS THEN MUCH MORE INFLUENCED BY THE PATTERNS IN THE ATLANTIC...SUCH
AS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO).

THE NAO DEALS MORE WITH PRESSURE PATTERNS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND EASTERN CANADA...WITH THE MAIN PLAYERS BEING A GREENLAND
BLOCK/EASTERN CANADA VORTEX VERSUS A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS
TELECONNECTION IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE AND THUS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. DURING TIMES OF A WEAK ENSO EVENT...LIKE THIS WINTER...THE
NAO COULD BE OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE IN TERMS OF OVERALL
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES.

LAST YEAR...THERE WAS A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF ANY DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC/GREENLAND. INSTEAD...ONE OF THE MOST
PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOWS IN DECADES WAS IN CONTROL. THIS KEPT A
STRONGER LOW AMPLITUDE JET IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
RESULT WAS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER A 'GREENLAND BLOCK' WILL BE MORE COMMON THIS
WINTER. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE WHETHER WE EXPERIENCE A HARSH
WINTER...OR ONE MORE LIKE LAST YEAR.

SOME OF OUR LARGEST NEGATIVE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
HAVE OCCURRED DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS (-7.3 FEB 07, -8.9 FEB 78,
-9.9 JAN 77, -11.4 DEC 89)...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DUE MORE TO A
PREDOMINANTLY -NAO...WHICH BASICALLY TRANSLATES INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER GREENLAND. DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS...LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN A MODERATE CORRELATION TO OUR COLD WEATHER AND SUCH A BLOCK
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT SUCH A BLOCKING IS
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST AT THIS STAGE OF THE SCIENCE.

TO SUMMARIZE...GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS FOR THIS WINTER ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT A HIGH VARIABILITY IN OUR TEMPERATURES. WHILE VERY WARM
PERIODS WILL LIKELY ALTERNATE WITH COLD SPELLS...CLIMATOLOGY TELLS
US THAT WHEN WEAK EL NINOS ARE IN PLACE...OUR OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD
BE CONTROLLED BY THE EXISTENCE/OR LACK THEREOF...OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WAS THE
CASE LAST YEAR...AND WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE THIS TIME AROUND.

IN OTHER WORDS...THE WEAK EL NINO WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
ON OUR REGION. THE NAO WILL PLAY A MUCH LARGER ROLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
CLIMATE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014-111930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WHICH MAY STAY ABOVE
FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019>021-085-111930-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WHICH MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-111930-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-111930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-111930-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. WATERSPOUTS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.
WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
AND CLOUDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-111930-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
330 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE. WATERSPOUTS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK