Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

439 
WHUS71 KBUF 091430
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

LEZ020-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0200Z-120110T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
930 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0200Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
930 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0300Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
930 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-045-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0600Z-120110T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
930 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0900Z-120110T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
930 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

068 
WHUS71 KBUF 092044
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

LOZ043-045-100445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0600Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
344 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-100445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0900Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
344 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-100445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0200Z-120110T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
344 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-100445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0200Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
344 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0300Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
344 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

587 
WHUS71 KBUF 100257
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

LEZ020-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
957 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
957 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0300Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
957 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-045-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0600Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
957 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-101100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.120110T0900Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
957 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

589 
WHUS71 KBUF 100915
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

LOZ043>045-101715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-101500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
415 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

906 
WHUS71 KBUF 101435
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042-101545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
935 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 



$$

LOZ043>045-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
935 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

048 
WHUS71 KBUF 102054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

LOZ043>045-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
354 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

946 
WHUS71 KBUF 102302
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
602 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

LOZ043>045-110015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120110T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
602 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS A CLIPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...INTRODUCING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUIET START TO THE DAY TODAY AS ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE THIS MORNING
ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITING EASTERN
ONTARIO AND AIDED BY LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. WITH SFC-850 DELTA-T
AROUND 15C OVER THE LAKE AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STARTING OUT AROUND
8KFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PREVENT SHOWERS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND DO NOT EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A COUPLE OF TENTHS...MAINLY ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SHEARED.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE COURTESY OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. HAVE
KNOCKED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE DECENT SUNSHINE...COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND -6C TO -8C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
30S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE FINGER LAKES POSSIBLY BREACHING
THE 40 DEGREE MARK.

FOR TONIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AS A POTENT MIDLEVEL VORTMAX DROPS INTO THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN MOST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...AND OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY THE RESULT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKE PLAIN
WITH MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL LAKES THEN BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
DEPARTING FRONT...PERHAPS AIDED BY A LITTLE BIT OF WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND A WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MID
RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR THESE...BEFORE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO THIS ACTIVITY COMPLETELY FALLING APART BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS...
WITH EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -6C SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES POSSIBLY
REACHING 40.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...THOUGH THE NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700
MB. WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/ SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY GIVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION THERE...WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN A SIZABLE WEDGE OF
DRY AIR AND RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THE SLOWING NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER LAKES...AND THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...AS PER THE
NEW 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH NOW KEEPS US TOTALLY DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HAVE ACCORDINGLY PULLED THE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
DRY AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY DAY NOW EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND 925 MB TEMPS INTO THE ZERO TO +6C
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THEN DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE...A CONNECTING INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. WILL
REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES INTO AND
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE FOR THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS LATER IN THE PERIOD...MILDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THURSDAY...BEFORE WEAK COOL ADVECTION FINALLY SETS IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S ON THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DROP OFF DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT OUR
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN A NUTSHELL...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE-
SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEATHER...ALONG WITH A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD.

THE TRANSITION TO THIS MORE TYPICAL MIDWINTER WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN
EARNEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
LIFTING OUT ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE AND NEW ENGLAND. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...850 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN -12C AND
-16C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL EASILY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER ANY
LINGERING SYNOPTIC PRECIP TO LIGHT SNOW AS IT TAPERS OFF...WHILE
ALSO TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DOWNWIND
OF  THE LAKES. THESE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY AS -12C TO -16C AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

AS IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS STILL-DISTANT TIME RANGE...THE LOCATION
OF THE POTENTIAL LAKE SNOWS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE
TO THE DIFFERING WAYS IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY
ASSOCIATED LOWER-LEVEL FEATURES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE 00Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF
RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EVENT. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS TENDING TO HANG BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT EVENT INITIALLY...BEFORE WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL OFFERS A SCENARIO THAT IS ESSENTIALLY A HYBRID OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF...I.E. A SHORTER-LIVED SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINANTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT
THEREAFTER.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW AND THE RESULTANT LOCATION OF
THE POTENTIAL LAKE SNOWS...AT THIS POINT IT IS SIMPLY NOT PRUDENT TO
TRY TO SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT WHERE THE LAKE SNOWS MIGHT BE. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND INDICATE MORE BROADBRUSH CHANCE
POPS FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
COVER BOTH THE POTENTIAL LAKE SNOWS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT
AREAS.

LATER ON IN THE PERIOD...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY DISRUPT ANY LAKE SNOWS...WHILE ALSO
BRINGING A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE IN
ORDER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE AFOREMENTIONED 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
SURFACE READINGS FALLING TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...WITH SUCH TEMPERATURES THEN LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...AS SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE. THE
'FLY IN THE OINTMENT' COULD BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT
FOR KART AND KGTB...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY...A
MODERATING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR TO MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS A CLIPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
513 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-091015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
513 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-091015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
513 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF