Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

911 
WHUS71 KBUF 070854
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

LOZ043-071700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
354 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-071700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
354 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120107T2300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
354 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120108T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
354 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

809 
WHUS71 KBUF 071452
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

LEZ040-041-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
952 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
952 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
952 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
952 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

630 
WHUS71 KBUF 072042
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

LEZ040-041-080300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T0300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
342 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-080445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
342 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-080445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
342 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-080445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
342 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

912 
WHUS71 KBUF 080220
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
920 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

LEZ040-041-080900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
920 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-081030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
920 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-081030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
920 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-081030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
920 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

594 
WHUS71 KBUF 080903
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

LEZ040-041-081015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
403 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED...THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

LOZ042-081100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
403 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-081500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
403 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-081500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
403 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

637 
WHUS71 KBUF 081046
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
546 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

LOZ042-081200-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
546 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

$$

LOZ043-081500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
546 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-081500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
546 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

568 
WHUS71 KBUF 081504
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

LOZ043>045-081615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120108T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1004 AM EST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...AND
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW MINOR
COSMETIC CHANGES.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE UPPER LAKES WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE RELATIVELY WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN +4 TO +6C AT 850 MB
OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP A DECENT INVERSION BENEATH 2000 FEET. EXPECT
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP INTO
THE 30S OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY. NOTED
MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS QUITE A BIT COLD...AND PROBABLY DO NOT
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...OR THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.

FOR SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE
DRY...MAINLY MARKED BY A SUBTLE SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT A PARTIAL CLEARING IN SKIES IN SOME
SPOTS...EXCEPT EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL DROP...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN -8C
AND -10C BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LEVELS OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW GROWTH...AS CLOUD TOPS
WILL BE BARELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE...AND THE SHALLOWER COLD AIR...WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE LACKING SNOW GROWTH REGION LIKELY
TO RESULT IN JUST SPRINKLES.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE WIND
FIELD IS ACTUALLY A QUITE FAVORABLE ONE FOR A CONVERGENT BAND TO
DEVELOP. BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN...WINDS THROUGH 850 MB ARE WELL
ALIGNED...AND RUN AROUND 35 KTS FROM 925 MB TO 850MB. THIS CAN BE A
SWEET SPOT FOR LAKE EFFECT...IN THAT ITS NOT TOO STRONG TO
SHEAR...BUT NOT TOO WEAK EITHER. AS WILL LAKE ERIE...THE LACK OF
SNOW GROWTH IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE
REGION SHOW AN INVERSION AT 5000 FT...WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY AROUND
-10C. IF NOTHING ELSE...EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
ON THE TUG HILL...WITH SOME SORT OF CONVERGENCE BAND ALSO POSSIBLE
ON EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...EXTENDING ONTO LAND. WHAT DOES OCCUR
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE...MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO WITH
A SMALL ARE OF LIKELY POPS ON THE TUG HILL...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THROUGH 00Z SUN...FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION
LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE STILL HANGING BACK JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY EVENING. AIR TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH WITH -8 TO
-10C AT 850 HPA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON AN UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
WITH LIFT FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW YORK PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES OR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR LOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

AS THIS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THE
LOWER 10K FEET OF THE SOUNDING PROFILES COOL...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE AREA FOR LIKELY POPS WITHIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MINOR WITH JUST AN INCH OR TWO FOR
ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS
FOUND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

SUNDAY A WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO AND EXPECT THIS BAND TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW TO DIMINISH TO
FLURRIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH 850S
LOWER TO AROUND -10C...MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH THE LAKE
REMAINING NEAR +3C...THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH ZONE REMAINS ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS REGION WITH A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO WEEKEND DAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND UPPER 20S
INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE LAKE...A LAKE CONVERGENT
BAND OF SNOW MAY SET UP OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE LAKE
AT NIGHT...AND THEN PUSHING EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC WINDS.

ELSEWHERE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER AIR TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MAY TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE -12 TO -18C GOOD DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE REMAINING ABOVE THE MOISTURE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WAA BEGINS
LATER MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ANY LAKE SNOWS ENDING.

DRY...AND NOT AS COLD MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH A CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT THAT
MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS AS THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...DELAYING
ANY PRECIPITATION TILL TUESDAY. LOWS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND GENESEE
VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD...THOUGH COLDER AIR BEHIND A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL POUR
BACK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD. RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH CONCERNS FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY. FOR THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. OTHERWISE
DRY TUESDAY AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WARMING TO +3 TOWARDS
THE WEST...AND -1 TOWARDS THE EAST AFTERNOON HIGHS SHALL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S...AND UPPER 40S THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...ALONG WITH A DEPLETION
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN A MILD OVERNIGHT...WHILE CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. CIRRUS AHEAD OF A LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY STORM SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THESE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEY...AS
RAIN ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY MAY FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SHELTER AND PROTECTED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER THAT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

EXPECT THIS RAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD AGREEMENT FROM
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHC POPS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COMPLEX SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE
WITH INTERACTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...AND A SECOND
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
...BRINGING THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE
EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS THE COLD FRONT TILL
DAYTIME THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...AND THEN HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE
-14 TO -16C AIR AT 850 HPA FLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO SET UP IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS WE ARE STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THEIR PRECEDING DAYS...THOUGH THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
PREVENT ANY MAJOR COOL DOWNS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT COULD SEE THIS
GIVING WAY TO LOWER RANGE MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH A STRENGTHENING NIGHTTIME
INVERSION DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN A MVFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK
BENEATH THE INVERSION. NAM12 SHOWS A LOBE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS DROPPING SOUTH FROM UPPER MICHIGAN...AND IS VERIFIED BY
LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW 09Z-16Z.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE
CIGS TO LIFT AT SOME TAF LOCATIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER LONGER
AT JHW/ART WHERE A MOIST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION TO PUSH BACK
THE START TIME UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORES...THEN DO EXPECT WINDS
AND WAVES TO PICK UP ON SATURDAY.

FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY AGAIN REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE END OF THE MONTH DECEMBER SUMMARIES FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE THE NARRATIVE. SEE BUFCLMBUF
AND BUFCLMROC OR TAKE A LOOK ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE...
LOCAL SECTION UNDER MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE FULL DETAILS
ON WHAT WAS A VERY MILD AND NEARLY SNOWLESS DECEMBER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
517 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-071030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
517 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-071030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
517 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF