Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2012
Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Jan 5, 2012, 3:50 PM EST. It took effect at Jan 6, 2012, 8:00 AM EST. It was in force for 14 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 5, 2012, 3:50 PM EST (20:50 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 6, 2012, 8:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Jan 6, 2012, 10:17 PM EST
- In force
- 14 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
811 WHUS71 KBUF 052050 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 LOZ043-060500- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120105T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1500Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-060500- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120105T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T2100Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING. 4 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ030-060500- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120106T2300Z/ LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-060500- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120107T0300Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-060500- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-060500- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 350 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
5 follow-up statements
672 WHUS71 KBUF 060301 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 LEZ040-041-061115- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ030-061115- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120106T2300Z/ LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-061115- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120107T0300Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-061115- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-061115- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1500Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-061115- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T2100Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1001 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RSH
831 WHUS71 KBUF 060851 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 LEZ040-041-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ030-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120106T2300Z/ LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120107T0300Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1300Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1500Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-061700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T2100Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 351 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
559 WHUS71 KBUF 061442 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 LEZ040-041-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ030-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120106T2300Z/ LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120107T0300Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T1500Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-062245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T2100Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 942 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
033 WHUS71 KBUF 062046 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 LOZ042-070500- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-070500- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-070500- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.120106T2100Z-120108T1100Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-070500- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ030-062300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120106T2300Z/ LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-070300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120107T0300Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 346 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ THOMAS
223 WHUS71 KBUF 070317 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 LEZ040-041-071130- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120107T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120107T2300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-071130- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120108T1100Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-071130- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120108T1100Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-071130- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0004.120107T1100Z-120108T1100Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-070430- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120107T0300Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 1017 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 5, 3:42 PM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 5, 3:42 PM EST, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EST THU JAN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM CANADA STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION...WHILE SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION FRIDAY...OTHERWISE MILD WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 20Z A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES. BEHIND THIS FRONT SOME FLURRIES CONTINUE TO FLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC...WITH DRIER AIR...IS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF JAMES BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS MUCH OF THE REGION CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME HOLES ARE ALLOWING FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS ALSO
SHOWN LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MILD SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS HIGH ADVANCING TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND SFC WINDS EVEN IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND PREVENT ANY COLD AIR FROM LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE WAA SOME UPGLIDE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS CONVERGENCE
ALONG A 45 KNOT LLJ AT 2K FEET INCREASES ACROSS WNY. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH ACTIVITY FROM THIS...WITH THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WNY JUST A
FLURRY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE STILL BEHIND THE STALLING COLD FRONT THE INCREASING
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE DELAYED TILL MUCH LATER IN THE NIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE A MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY...AND WITH A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND...AND NO SNOW COVER A 50 DEGREE READING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. INLAND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG...LIKELY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
WITH THE STALLING COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS
ENOUGH SO THAT SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE NICKEL BELT OF ONTARIO DOWN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK IN THE COLD AIR. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE
SOME CONVERGENCE OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL OF THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...JUST EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...CLOUD COVER AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ON SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION ALOFT AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AIDS IN SHARPENING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO SOME
EXTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL OFF...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
BY AFTERNOON COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN OUT WITH TEMPS
SLIPPING BACK THROUGH THE 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COLD ADVECTION BOTTOMS 850MB TEMPS OUT
AROUND -10C. THIS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...BUT PROBABLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH FOR ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL
GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
MOISTURE OR LIFT. IF ANY LAKE EFFECT MATERIALIZES...IT WILL END
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
PULL BACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE VERY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A LITTLE
SUNSHINE BETWEEN PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD AS WEAK WAVES PASS BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH.
ANOTHER MAJOR WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS ON MONDAY GIVING WAY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC AIR FLOODS ACROSS THE NATION. THIS
WARM-UP IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AND
TELECONNECTIONS...SO IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HAVE GONE ABOVE
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND SEVERAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGRESSION EQUATIONS AT THAT TIME RANGE DURING
ANOMALOUS PATTERNS. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE WITH MID 40S FOR
NOW...BUT IT MAY GET EVEN WARMER.
BY THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO
WHAT MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR AND
TRACK A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
BOTH HAVE A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BOTH KEEP THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF PHASE. SEVERAL
OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A FEW PAST OPERATIONAL RUNS
HAVE PHASED THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WITH A STRONG GREAT LAKES CUTTER
MOVING UP TO OUR WEST.
AT THIS TIME FRAME MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIP AROUND ON A POSSIBLE
PHASED SOLUTION GIVEN THAT JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN TIMING...PLACEMENT
OR AMPLITUDE OF EITHER WAVE WILL PRODUCE BIGGER AND BIGGER CHANGES
MOVING FORWARD IN TIME. IN EITHER CASE...PHASED OR UNPHASED...THE
MAJOR WARM-UP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL ENSURE A
MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN THE FAR SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALLOWING
IT TO CAPTURE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT THE FAST MOVEMENT
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES.
LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR ARRIVING AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO AT OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE.
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE RAIN...WITH PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT
ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A
FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE
AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL
NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10
DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT
MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT
WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3
WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
THOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CIGS WERE FOUND. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. TOWARDS THE LATER
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD STRONG WAA ALONG WITH A 45 KNOT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
WESTWARD. WILL INCLUDE LLWS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WINDS AT THE SFC WILL LIKELY NEED DAY
TIME MIXING TO TRANSPORT THESE HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC.
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW GUSTY WE WILL BE TOMORROW AS
WITH THE WAA ALOFT MAY STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH CHC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHC OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR LAKE ERIE WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOUR
PERIOD. THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
LATE THIS EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FRIDAY...WITH WAVES REMAINING ABOVE 4 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD.
WE WILL ALSO ISSUE A SCA FOR THE NIAGARA RIVER TOMORROW WITH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO. EXPECT THE UPPER NIAGARA TO HOLD ONTO THESE
STRONG WINDS A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN THE LOWER NIAGARA.
FOR LAKE ONTARIO WAVES REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE WINDS HAVE
MAINLY DROPPED BELOW 18KNOTS HERE...WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH 6
PM. THEN WE SHALL HAVE A PERIOD OF NO SCA ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. ON FRIDAY WILL ISSUE SCA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THE LAKE AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN LIKE LAKE ERIE WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY
EVENING AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDS AND WAVES ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE END OF THE MONTH DECEMBER SUMMARIES FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TODAY TO INCLUDE THE NARRATIVE. SEE BUFCLMBUF
AND BUFCLMROC OR TAKE A LOOK ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE...
LOCAL SECTION UNDER MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE FULL DETAILS
ON WHAT WAS A VERY MILD AND NEARLY SNOWLESS DECEMBER.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ044-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR LOZ044-045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCKHazardous weather outlook, Jan 5, 4:50 AM EST, 11 hours before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 450 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-061000- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 450 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-061000- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 450 AM EST THU JAN 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.