Alert archive / New York / Lakeshore Flood Warnings in 2012
Lakeshore Flood Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lakeshore flood warning at Oct 28, 2012, 4:03 PM EDT for 6 counties in New York. It took effect at Oct 29, 2012, 5:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 14 hr. 16 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 28, 2012, 4:03 PM EDT (20:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 29, 2012, 5:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 30, 2012, 7:02 AM EDT
- In force
- 14 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 5:10 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Maple Springs, NY | TREES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 5:10 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Ripley, NY | TREES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 7:30 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Pittsford, NY | TREES DOWN. RELAYED BY PUBLIC VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Oct 29, 9:05 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Clarendon, NY | TREES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 9:10 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Albion, NY | TREES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 9:26 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Lyons, NY | PORTION OF ROOF BLOWN OFF IN WIND. |
| Oct 29, 9:30 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Lyons, NY | NUMEROUS TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT VILLAGE |
| Oct 29, 9:30 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Murray, NY | TREE DOWN |
| Oct 29, 11:00 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Penfield, NY | TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 11:20 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Webster, NY | TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 11:45 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Montezuma, NY | TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 11:50 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Hamlin, NY | TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN |
| Oct 29, 11:50 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Royalton Center, NY | TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD |
| Oct 30, 12:20 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Newark, NY | TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE |
| Oct 30, 12:21 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Panama, NY | ROUTE 474 CLOSED DUE TO POWER LINES DOWN |
| Oct 30, 2:00 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Auburn, NY | TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF AUBURN. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 468 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 40 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
630 WHUS41 KBUF 282003 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 403 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 NYZ001>005-290415- /O.UPG.KBUF.LS.A.0004.121029T1800Z-121030T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 403 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-290415- /O.UPG.KBUF.LS.A.0004.121030T0000Z-121030T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 403 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ HITCHCOCK
7 follow-up statements
090 WHUS41 KBUF 290201 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1001 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 NYZ001>005-291015- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 1001 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-291015- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 1001 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ RSH
036 WHUS41 KBUF 290744 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 344 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 NYZ001>005-291545- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 344 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-291545- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 344 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ APFFEL
072 WHUS41 KBUF 291458 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1058 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 NYZ001>005-292300- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 1058 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-292300- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 1058 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$
911 WHUS41 KBUF 291938 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 NYZ001>005-300345- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-300345- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.121029T2100Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 338 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$
783 WHUS41 KBUF 300211 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1011 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 NYZ001>005-301000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 1011 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-301000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 1011 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ JJR
653 WHUS41 KBUF 300742 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 342 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 NYZ001>005-301200- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 342 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NIAGARA... ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS... INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BRADDOCK BAY AND SURROUNDING PONDS...IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SODUS BAY...PORT BAY...AND LITTLE SODUS BAY. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ019-301400- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 342 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WAVES AND RISING WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE. RISING WATER LEVELS IN HARBORS MAY BREAK BOATS FROM THEIR MOORINGS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING... IS IMMINENT... OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ TMA
361 WHUS41 KBUF 301102 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 NYZ001>005-301215- /O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121030T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ NYZ019-301215- /O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121030T1400Z/ CHAUTAUQUA- 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ TMA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lakeshore flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lakeshore flood warning went out at Oct 28, 1:29 PM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 28, 1:29 PM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BE SHOVED WESTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE REMNANTS
OF SANDY WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WHILE
LAKESHORE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF
LAKE ONTARIO. RAINY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS
FOUND GENERALLY JUST WEST OF THIS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL SEGMENT. FOG IS FOUND ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW NEW YORK STATE.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AT 1430Z...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
WESTWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM THE FINGER LAKES
AND GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BE
SHOVED WESTWARD AS SANDY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE UP THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KNOT 250MB JET WILL
REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. GREATEST ASCENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION...AND WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS HERE
TODAY...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
MAY JUST HAVE A PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TODAY...AND REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF SANDY WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR CWA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE
RAINFALL.
QPF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE FOUND GREATEST GENESEE VALLEY
WESTWARD WITH AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH FALLING THROUGH THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR WNY WHERE
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TAPERING TO JUST
A FEW SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH COUNTRY.
COOL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE MUCH FROM THIS
MORNINGS READINGS...WARMING A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND COOLING SEVERAL
DEGREES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MAJOR
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY
MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTRAORDINARILY DEEP 950MB LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE
WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD MISS THE WORST OF THE IMPACTS OF THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY...IT WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT.
THE MAIN IMPACTS...
1) HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WELL AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW. STRONG WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. UNLIKE MOST HIGH WINDS EVENTS...WINDS
WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL GENERALLY INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES. SINCE STRONG WINDS
TYPICALLY ARE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...TYPICALLY PROTECTED
LOCATIONS MAY BE MORE VULNERABLE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY GREATLY BY LOCATION. GENERALLY...THE
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RUN BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 50 TO 65 MPH. THIS WILL COME IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD...AS A
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS BACKS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST. NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGH END OF
THESE WINDS. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE
ARE...THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NORTH TO
SOUTH VALLEYS. NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS SUCH AS THE FINGER
LAKES...AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY MAY HAVE MORE DAMAGE AT THE
SOUTH ENDS...WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO FUNNEL.
IT IS UNUSUAL TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT HAS PROVIDED AMPLE CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WARNING. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS SHOW 2000 FOOT WINDS OF 65 TO
80 KNOTS. WHILE ALL OF THIS WILL NOT MIX DOWN...THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE SURFACE SO EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING AT
NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ITS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT WINDS ARE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED...AND THAT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW LAKE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
AID IN MIXING ACROSS THE LAKES AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
2) FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SANDY WILL ALSO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL TO MUCH OF
WESTERN NY. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND WILL
LIKELY BE THE KEY TRIGGER TO ANY FLOODING WHICH MAY OCCUR.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINING IS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THIS
BAND. RESEARCH SHOWS THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY IF TROPICAL MOISTURE FINDS A BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS ON. INDEED THERE IS A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW
EFFECTIVELY PUSHES IT OUT OF THE WAY. THIS CASE IS A BIT DIFFERENT
FROM MOST...GIVEN THE LARGELY EXTRATROPICAL NATURE OF THE LOW BY THE
TIME IT ARRIVES. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROPICAL
RAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE MORE THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING...THEN FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
AS IS...CONSENSUS QPF AND MMEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THERE IS FLOODING
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
IS IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS...WHICH TEND TO BE A BIT QUICKER TO
RISE...AND ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE PRIMED WITH RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROPICAL PUSH. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ON THE
GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY RIVERS...BUT BOTH APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME URBAN FLOOD ISSUES. KEEP IN MIND THERE
ARE PLENTY OF LEAVES WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY CLOG DRAINS AND NARROW
CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODED BASEMENTS. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING MAY CONTINUE BEYOND
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD BE HANDLED BY WARNINGS. ALSO...QPFS ARE
CONSISTENTLY LESS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...SO CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS
REGION OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH.
3) LAKE SHORE FLOODING...
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE ONTARIO...SLIGHTLY LESS SPEEDS ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST ARE EXCEEDINGLY RARE...IF NOT
UNPRECEDENTED. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO
22 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NEAR 15 FEET ON
LAKE ERIE SUNSET BAY SOUTHWARD. THIS MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
LAKESHORE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOTH LAKES...MAINLY IN
BAYS AND INLETS. HISTORICALLY...WE KNOW BRADDOCK BAY IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LAKESHORE FLOODING...BUT WITH AN EVENT OF THIS
MAGNITUDE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN MANY OF THE BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE.
OUTSIDE OF THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...MONDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY
CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS. RAIN AND
WIND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...MAKING
FOR HARSH TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WITH MARITIME
ROOTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...RAISING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF SOME ON TUESDAY...LINGERING LONGEST IN WESTERN PORTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY ARE FORECAST TO STALL OVER CENTRAL PA
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS LATE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...AS
IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. BY THIS
TIME...EXPECT WINDS WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER FROM THE CORE OF THE
FILLING EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT THE STORM WILL STILL BE
STRONG...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. WHILE RAIN WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QPFS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FLOODING. IT WILL BE COOL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT ONLY
THE COLDER MODELS (NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
SNOW...BUT THE MAJORITY (GFS/EUROPEAN/GGEM) KEEP PRECIPITATION
ALL RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS...AND
KEEP IT ALL RAIN.
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 12Z RUNS...WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF SANDY FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK IN A COOL AND
MOIST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A PARTING
SHOT OF RAIN AS THE FINAL SURFACE TROF CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...AND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK INTO WESTERN NY.
UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
JUST AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
RISK FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS AREAWIDE MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT FELT THAT IF THIS PATTERN WERE TO
VERIFY THEN RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW MUCH FOCUS AND
ATTENTION LIES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WIND AND FLOOD
THREATS FROM SANDY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS.
WAVES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE EAST OVER THE
AREA. VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 2 MILES IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDS TO 6 MILES PLUS IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AREAS.
THE CEILINGS ARE SETTLING AROUND 6-7 HUNDRED FEET
WITH A FEW BREAKS TO AROUND 1KFT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z MON.
THIS FORECAST WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN AND IFR. STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
GOING ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF ONTARIO MOST OF
THE TIME TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 4 FEET WILL BE FOUND...WHILE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN 4 FEET NEAR THE BUFFALO HARBOR AND FROM
MEXICO BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE TRACK AND IMPACT OF THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...THEN TRACK INLAND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST ON
TUESDAY.
WE WILL UPGRADE LAKE ONTARIO TO STORM WARNING BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE NIAGARA RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO
GALE WARNINGS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STORM WATCH TO CONTINUE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45-50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS. WINDS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO
20 FEET OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NEAR 15 FEET ON
LAKE ERIE. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SHIPPING INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS AND CONSIDER AVOIDING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ003>008-013-014.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ001>005.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
AVIATION...
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMASHazardous weather outlook, Oct 28, 3:50 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 NYZ006>008-292000- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ003>005-292000- MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. FLOOD WATCH. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001-002-292000- NIAGARA-ORLEANS- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ010>012-020-021-085-292000- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. HIGH WIND WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ019-292000- CHAUTAUQUA- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ013-014-292000- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ030-042>045-062>065-292000- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ040-041-292000- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF SLZ022-024-292000- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-292000- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF HITCHCOCK
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 3:59 AM EDT | Gale Warning | BUF | 49 hr | |
| Oct 28, 3:59 AM EDT | Storm Warning | BUF | 49 hr | |
| Oct 28, 4:12 AM EDT | High Wind Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 51 hr |
Nearby
Lakeshore Flood Warnings in New York, 2012Every lakeshore flood warning in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.