Alert archive / New York / Lakeshore Flood Warnings in 2012

Lakeshore Flood Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 1, 2012Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lakeshore flood warning at Jan 1, 2012, 5:11 AM EST for Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Jan 1, 2012, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2012, 5:11 AM EST (10:11 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 1, 2012, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 1, 2012, 10:19 PM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 1, 6:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 59Dunkirk, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 68 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
445 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

516 
WHUS41 KBUF 011011
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
511 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ010-019-085-011815-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LS.A.0001.120101T1800Z-120102T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LS.W.0001.120101T1800Z-120102T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
511 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST MONDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ERIE SHORE INCLUDING ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
  COUNTIES.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...EXPECT A RAPID RISE OF WATER LEVELS ON
  EASTERN LAKE ERIE REACHING 8 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM. FLOOD
  STAGE IS 8 FEET.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OVER 14 FEET
  TO CAUSE FLOODING ALONG THE NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKE ERIE. AREAS
  ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COMBINATION OF RISING WATER AND
  WAVES INCLUDE ROUTE 5 NEAR HAMBURG...HOOVER BEACH AND SUNSET
  BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING,
IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...
OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

$$

TMA
3 follow-up statements
382 
WHUS41 KBUF 011411
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
911 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ010-019-085-012215-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0001.120101T1800Z-120102T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
911 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ERIE SHORE INCLUDING ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA 
  COUNTIES. 

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...EXPECT A RAPID RISE OF WATER LEVELS ON
  EASTERN LAKE ERIE REACHING ABOUT 8 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM.
  FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OVER 14 
  FEET TO CAUSE FLOODING ALONG THE NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKE ERIE. 
  AREAS ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COMBINATION OF RISING 
  WATER AND WAVES INCLUDE ROUTE 5 NEAR HAMBURG...HOOVER BEACH 
  AND SUNSET BAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING...
IS IMMINENT...OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
541 
WHUS41 KBUF 012044
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ010-019-085-020445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120102T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
344 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ERIE SHORE INCLUDING ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA 
  COUNTIES. 

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...EXPECT A RAPID RISE OF WATER LEVELS ON
  EASTERN LAKE ERIE REACHING UP TO 8 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM.
  FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET.

* TIMING...THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OVER 14 FEET
  TO CAUSE FLOODING ALONG THE NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKE ERIE. AREAS
  ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COMBINATION OF RISING WATER AND
  WAVES INCLUDE ROUTE 5 NEAR HAMBURG...HOOVER BEACH AND SUNSET
  BAY. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORELINE
  EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING...
IS IMMINENT...OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...
OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

$$
351 
WHUS41 KBUF 020319
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

NYZ010-019-085-020430-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120102T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1019 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING LAKE LEVELS TO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 5 FEET. WITH A CONTINUED SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS
AND LAKE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF LAKESHORE
FLOODING HAS ENDED...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lakeshore flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lakeshore flood warning went out at Jan 1, 4:26 AM EST, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 1, 4:26 AM EST, 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND PRODUCES
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WILL
USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR ON TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEWEST DATA CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THAT WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM. AN EVENT WHICH HAS BEEN
UNFAMILIAR TO US THIS SEASON. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE
FROM THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA ACROSS LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE.
925-850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEARLY 60 KNOTS AND CONSIDERING DEGREE
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...CAN EASILY ENVISION THE
BULK OF THESE WINDS MIXING DOWN ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
WITH THE ADDITIONAL FUNNELING COMPONENT.

WE MAY INITIALLY SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT AS RAIN...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR
SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED LAKE COMPONENT
OFF LAKE ERIE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN SOON
AFTER OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL INITIALLY SET UP ON A
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -12C BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS NO QUESTION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
THERE IS ALWAYS THE CONCERN IN STRONG WIND FIELD PATTERNS WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A LIMITATION ON DISCRETE AND INTENSE BANDS FORMING.
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT FROM BUFFALO SOUTHWARD OFF ERIE AND FROM WATERTOWN
SOUTHWARD OFF ONTARIO.

AS FOR HEADLINES...UPGRADES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FROM
BUFFALO/WATERTOWN SOUTHWARD LOOK REASONABLE. WILL UPGRADE TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND WILL INCLUDE JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE ON AN ARCTIC FRONT DURING
THIS PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALREADY SETTING UP DURING SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE STRENGTHENED AND SHIFTED AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL STILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
ON. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE LAKE SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE METRO BUFFALO AND GENESEE/WYOMING
COUNTIES TO THE MORE TRADITIONAL CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND SO-CALLED SKI
COUNTRY AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

SIMILARLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE LAKE SNOW TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

A SECONDARY FRONT OF ARCTIC NATURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...BRINGING AN EVEN SHARPER DROP IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.
850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM AROUND -10C/-12C ON MONDAY
MORNING TO -20C/-22C BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SECOND
FRONT...AND LAKE SNOWS WILL ENHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GREATER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND THE SHORE. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENTER THE LAKE ERIE ENVIRONMENT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONCENTRATION OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS
OF TWO FEET OR MORE OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND A FOOT AND A HALF
FOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD LAYER. ANY SNOW WILL BE PURELY
DERIVED FROM THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY THE LAKES AND WILL BE LIMITED
TO ONLY A FEW INCHES OF VERY FLUFFY AND LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW.

WINDS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 50
MPH...HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE TO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW....FURTHER
EXACERBATING THE ALREADY TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS. THE PASSAGE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL RELAX THE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT AND THE REDUCE THE
WINDS AND GUSTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO START THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE
REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE SOME LIGHT RAIN ENTERS
THE PICTURE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FOR THE DETAILS...

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP EVERYWHERE WITH THE
CROSSING OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BUT HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FOUND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
AT 850 HPA ON THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN AROUND -10 TO -13 THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT OFF
LAKE ERIE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND OFF LAKE
ONTARIO TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSES AND WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY...BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT WILL
SHIFT TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA...AND OFF LAKE
ONTARIO TOWARDS THE TUG HILL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND LOW TO MID 20S
ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL END THE SNOW THREAT AS WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
DEEPENING LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL LAKES. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS LOW FILLING AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY AND GIVEN THIS TRACK PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
COME AS RAIN...THOUGH AT THIS POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL START WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK AS OF 0430Z. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO LOW-END MVFR STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE LATTER CONCENTRATED MORE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWER CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE GONE SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
OF A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SWING ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY. OF GREATER
CONCERN WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND 30-40 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50-55 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR/MVFR AS
DEEPENING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALSO DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. WITHIN
THE LAKE SNOWS...LIFR WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIKELY NEAR OR JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONTINUED VERY WINDY WITH AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN WITH
HEAVY LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A POWERFUL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES BETWEEN THE MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 40-45
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50-55 KNOTS.
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG ON LAKE ONTARIO...BUT STILL
A SOLID GALE WITH 35-40 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND 45-50 KNOT GUSTS. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY BECOMING
WESTERLY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
BY THEN...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH END SMALL CRAFTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES ON
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF
A CLASSIC SEICHE EVENT ON LAKE ERIE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY
SHIFTING QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM GLERL RAISES THE LAKE LEVEL TO NEAR 7 FEET IN
BUFFALO. THIS IS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE...AND GIVEN THE PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD EXPECT THE LEVEL TO REACH 8 TO 9 FEET ABOVE LOW
WATER DATUM.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING
FOR ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT FLOODING OF HARBORS AND AT THE MOUTH OF CREEKS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND ALSO ALONG FUHRMAN BLVD AND PORTIONS OF
ROUTE 5. IF THE LEVEL REACHES 9 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM...
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER IN
SPOTS SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND AND CAYUGA ISLAND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ005-006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ004-013-014-021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 12:57 PM EST, 16 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

NYZ001-002-011800-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIVING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-011800-
NORTHERN ERIE-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIVING SNOW POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ011-011800-
GENESEE-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIVING SNOW POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-011800-
ALLEGANY-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON NEW YEARS DAY. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY ALONG
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIVING
SNOW POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-020-011800-
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD BUT LESS FOCUSED LAKE SNOWS TO
PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL
DURING THIS TIME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-011800-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-011800-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON NEW YEARS DAY. THIS
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LAKE SNOWS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY EFFECT SNOW BAND
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TUG
HILL...AS WELL AS MUCH OF LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
LAKE EFFECT BANDS SOUTHWARD...AND USHER IN EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOST PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND
OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-011800-
MONROE-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON NEW YEARS DAY. THIS
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LAKE SNOWS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
LAKE EFFECT BANDS SOUTHWARD...AND USHER IN EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-011800-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON NEW YEARS DAY. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING A PORTION OF THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AT
TIMES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-011800-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-011800-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
LAKES MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING STORM FORCE
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-011800-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON NEW YEARS DAY. THIS
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LAKE SNOWS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
LAKE EFFECT BANDS SOUTHWARD...AND USHER IN EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 4:23 AM ESTLake Effect Snow WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 7 more59 hr
Jan 1, 4:33 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Monroe and 3 more23 hr
Jan 1, 4:33 AM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 9 more23 hr
Jan 1, 4:02 PM ESTLake Effect Snow WatchBUFCayuga, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne12 hr

Nearby

Lakeshore Flood Warnings in New York, 2012Every lakeshore flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.