Lakeshore Flood Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

900 
WHUS41 KBUF 032024
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

NYZ007-040300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120304T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
324 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OF JEFFERSON COUNTY... 
  MAINLY IN CHAUMONT BAY AND BLACK RIVER BAY. 

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES 
  WILL FORCE THE WATER LEVEL TO RISE SEVERAL FEET AT THE 
  NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE 
  LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...ESPECIALLY IN CHAUMONT BAY AND BLACK 
  RIVER BAY. SOME COTTAGES ALONG THE SHORELINE OF THESE BAYS MAY 
  BE IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING...
IS IMMINENT...OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...
OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
324 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ERIE SHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA AND ERIE COUNTIES.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
  CAUSE LAKE LEVELS TO FLUCTUATE. THE WATER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
  TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WATER LEVELS AND VERY LARGE WAVES MAY PRODUCE 
  SPLASH OVER IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS...INCLUDING HARBORS 
  AND CREEKS FLOWING INTO THE LAKE...AND PORTIONS OF ROUTE 5 IN 
  ATHOL SPRINGS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS WILL
GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

&&

$$

APFFEL

933 
WHUS41 KBUF 032234
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

NYZ007-032345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120304T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
534 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. 

WIND AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE 
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NYZ010-019-085-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
534 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...LAKE ERIE SHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA AND ERIE COUNTIES.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
  CAUSE LAKE LEVELS TO FLUCTUATE. THE WATER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
  OSCILLATE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WATER LEVELS AND VERY LARGE WAVES MAY PRODUCE 
  SPLASH OVER IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS...INCLUDING HARBORS 
  AND CREEKS FLOWING INTO THE LAKE...AND PORTIONS OF ROUTE 5 IN 
  ATHOL SPRINGS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS WILL
GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

&&

$$

243 
WHUS41 KBUF 032343
CFWBUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
643 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

NYZ010-019-085-040045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LS.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
643 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY. 

THE WATER LEVEL ON LAKE ERIE HAS DROPPED TO JUST BELOW 5 FEET.
AS THE WIND AND WAVES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
635 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11Z MSAS OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 978MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIAN BAY WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
DRY SLOT OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE HAS OVERTAKEN THE COLD
FRONT...SO DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE JUST A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOUND ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUST SO FAR AT KIAG REACHING 60 KNOTS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z...THEN MAINTAINING INTENSITY
TODAY AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR A
DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

WINDS...PAST FEW RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW OBSERVED
DATA HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST
BELT OF 850MB WINDS...WITH 70+ KNOTS NOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF 70+ MPH GUSTS HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOLID WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS ARE
STILL A NEAR CERTAINTY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE DRY SLOT WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF HIGHER WINDS
FROM ALOFT...WITH BUFKIT GUST SCHEMES STILL SUGGESTING FREQUENT
60-65 MPH GUSTS FROM LAKE ERIE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. PEAK
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT FROM THIS CORRIDOR...
WITH THE FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER SEEING 50-55 MPH
GUSTS TODAY.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A LONG LASTING HIGH WIND EVENT...WITH A SOLID 15
HOURS OF STRONG WINDS. THE LONGEVITY AND MAGNITUDE OF STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH TREE
AND POWERLINE DAMAGE.

TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...THEN MORE RAPIDLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MOVE AWAY. HIGH WIND WARNING TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL REMAIN AS IS ENDING AT 10PM.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD REACH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY 12Z SAT AND EXIT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS BY MID MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
ENDING. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY AS THE EXTENSIVE DRY SLOT
REMAINS IN PLACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE LOW CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM THAN ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT MAY END UP BEING
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.

TONIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A
DUSTING IN SOME SPOTS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BECOME MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A WSW FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 7K FEET. WITH THIS IN MIND...AN ADDED BOOST FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH MOST OF THE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT. MAY
SEE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY MORNING IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL HERE WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO 6K FEET OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND AN ADDED BOOST OF UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
TUG HILL WILL ALSO AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY
MORNING ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS...ALONG WITH A SWATH OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE. COINCIDENT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE...COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM -10C TO -14C AT THE START OF SUNDAY TO THE -14C TO -18C
RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMONPLACE OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS.

AS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE LAKE SNOWS...AN INITIAL 280/290 DEGREE
FLOW AT THE START OF SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH TIME DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
STEERING WINDS VEERING TO ABOUT 310/320 DEGREES BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS STARTING OUT SUNDAY IN
THE FORM OF PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE BANDS EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE MULTIBANDED IN NATURE AND
SHIFTING TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH TIME...WHILE ALSO
BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE.

GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS...THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR MASS...AND THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW 6-7 KFT AND THEREFORE ONLY PARTIALLY INTERSECTING THE
PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...FEEL THAT ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE...PROVIDED OF COURSE THAT NO SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP. AT THIS
POINT...WOULD EXPECT THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MOST LIKELY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
THE ROCHESTER AREA OVER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. ALL THIS SAID...WILL NOT
HOIST ANY FLAGS JUST YET GIVEN THE 3RD/4TH PERIOD NATURE OF THIS
EVENT AND THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS...THE
DAY SHIFT CAN HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS AND MAKE THE FINAL CALL.

LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE LAKE SNOWS AND MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR COME INTO PLAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY MONDAY EVENING...EXPECT JUST SOME
REMNANT FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LEFTOVER
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN FALLING APART
COMPLETELY MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVERHEAD.

GIVEN THE CHILLY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 20. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IT WILL
BE EVEN COLDER AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS DIPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ZERO BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE COLD TEMPERATURES OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP/DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES ON
TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO BETWEEN +3C AND +7C. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUN...THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN LOCATIONS IN THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD PUSH 60.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE IDEA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL PERSIST. THE
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER...AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN BUT LEANING MORE
CLOSELY TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH IF ANY OF THESE MIGHT BE RIGHT AT
THE PRESENT TIME...FEEL THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW IS TO
JUST BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INDICATE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT ONE
THAT IS WEIGHTED A BIT MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE SLOWER GEM/ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE A BRIEF DRY SLOT OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TODAY AS STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH
THIS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO
35 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE FOUND OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE
LOWER END OF THAT RANGE FOUND FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY. SOME LIMITED LAKE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF BOTH LAKES WITH LOCAL IFR DEVELOPING THERE
AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR GEORGIAN BAY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH 60 KNOTS OF
WIND JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN WILL BRING A
HIGH END GALE TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 40-45 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 55-60
KNOTS AS WELL ON BOTH LAKES. THE STRONG WINDS AND LONG FETCH WILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 17 FEET ON BOTH LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO BELOW GALE
FORCE THEN DROP OFF FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FOLLOWING THE GALE...MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR CROSSING THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE
WATERS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ON LAKE ERIE PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 8.7
FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM AND HAVE SINCE FALLEN A FEW FEET. WATER
LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE LOW AT TOLEDO IN THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
LAKE...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WATER TO THE BUFFALO END. MAY SEE THE WATER LEVEL BOUNCE AROUND BY
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8
FEET ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING IN HARBORS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF CREEKS...ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT SPRAY ON ROUTE 5 IN ATHOL SPRINGS.

AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WE HAVE ADDED A LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNING FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AS WELL. STRONG SW WINDS AND
LARGE WAVE ACTION WILL BRING WATER LEVELS UP SEVERAL FEET THERE.
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS TO FLOODING ARE IN THE BAYS...ESPECIALLY
CHAUMONT BAY. A VERY SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO FORCE
WATER INTO THE NARROW OPENING OF THAT BAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS
EVENT WILL BE CLOSE TO THAT NEEDED WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-
     010-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030-
         042-062.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

NYZ007-041015-
JEFFERSON-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-011-013-014-021-041015-
ORLEANS-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-010-041015-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-041015-
LEWIS-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-020-041015-
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7
INCHES WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-041015-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7
INCHES WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-041015-
OSWEGO-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7
INCHES WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-041015-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7
INCHES WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ043>045-063>065-041015-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-041015-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ042-062-041015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
511 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KENMORE                 42.96N  78.87W
03/03/2012  M59 MPH          ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER

0408 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 43.11N  78.94W
03/03/2012  M69 MPH          NIAGARA            NY   ASOS

            ASOS

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOMERSET                43.35N  78.56W
03/03/2012                   NIAGARA            NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            POWERLINES DOWN ON ROUTE 18

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO                 42.89N  78.86W
03/03/2012                   ERIE               NY   CITY OFFICIAL

            3 TREES DOWN

0647 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT    42.93N  78.73W
03/03/2012  M58 MPH          ERIE               NY   ASOS

            ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1200070
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200071
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200072
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200073
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200074

HITCHCOCK