Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Watches in 2012
Lake Effect Snow Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow watch at Feb 23, 2012, 4:28 PM EST for 14 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 24, 2012, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 23, 2012, 4:28 PM EST (21:28 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 24, 2012, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2012, 3:54 AM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 11 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 440 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
935 WWUS41 KBUF 232128 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 NYZ012-019>021-085-240530- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ010-011-240530- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...TWO INCHES OR LESS SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ006>008-240530- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ013-014-240530- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES...WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-240530- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ001>003-240530- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER 428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. * TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT... 2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
2 follow-up statements
798 WWUS41 KBUF 240350 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 NYZ012-019>021-085-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ010-011-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...TWO INCHES OR LESS SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ006>008-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ013-014-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES...WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ001>003-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER 1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. * TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
315 WWUS41 KBUF 240854 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 NYZ006-241700- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.120225T0300Z-120225T2200Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING SATURDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-241700- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.120224T2300Z-120225T2200Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WYOMING...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. * TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ010-011-021-241000- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WELLSVILLE 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. $$ NYZ013-014-241000- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120225T0000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. $$ NYZ001>003-241000- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DIMINISHED. $$ NYZ007-008-241700- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.120224T1300Z-120225T1100Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE TUG HILL...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. * TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWS TONIGHT. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-241700- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.120225T0900Z-120225T2200Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ APFFEL
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow watch went out at Feb 23, 3:41 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 3:41 PM EST, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A
CHANGE OF SNOW TO RAIN DURING FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL BRING COLDER AIR DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
12Z NAM12 AND REGIONAL GEM HAVE COME TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS AS TO THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY TO A PRECIP BAND PRECEDING THE SURFACE
LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT...WITHIN A LIKEWISE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION IN THESE SAME LAYERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEEP OMEGA
PLUME TO ABOVE 25000FT AND A CO-LOCATED OMEGA MAXIMUM WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL MAXIMIZE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS
TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN
INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL ALSO AFFECT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES...LESSER IMPACT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDES AS LITTLE MORE TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. WILL START A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT 6AM FOR JEFF/OSW/LEWIS COUNTIES WITH A 6-8 INCH MAX OF
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT SHOULD COME DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION STARTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES LAKE ERIE. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPERMOST 30S TO MID 40S FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL
NY...THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY PLAGUING THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST...THE
ONE THING THAT APPEARS REASONABLY CERTAIN IS THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE PROBLEMATIC SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SYNOPTIC SNOWS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION BAND WEST OF THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA.
COLDER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE LOW WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES
FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -8C TO -10C RANGE
UNDER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S.
WHILE THE SURFACE-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT WITH A
BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS DEEP
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE SETUP...WILL GO WITH A
BROADBRUSH LES WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
ONTARIO/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WHERE CLIMATOLOGY GENERALLY RULES
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM 270 TO
290/300 DEGREES...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM OSWEGO/SOUTHERN LEWIS DOWN TO EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND FROM SOUTHERN ERIE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THESE AREAS HAVE THE STRONGEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FROM NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY OVER TO ROCHESTER.
IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND HENCE THE
SURFACE...WILL BE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION...CLOSEST TO THE AREA OF GREATEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
MAX GUSTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...MORE LIKE
35-45KTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN ADVISORY THAT STRADDLES THE
END OF THE THIRD INTO THE FOURTH FORECAST PERIODS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW AND LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT
TO MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON...WHEN THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE GREATER
CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A WINTRY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 30
DEGREES...MUCH MORE WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY.
...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST
THE AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY START TO THE WEEK AS A CLIPPER LOW SLIDES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANY
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WILL OCCUR FAR TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY DAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA HELPING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISPARITIES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO FORM
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER IN DEVELOPING BROAD WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO
THE ECMWF THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRESENTS A VERY SIMILAR
CONUNDRUM TO THE ONE PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST
AND GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT...CHANGES WILL BE VERY
MINOR...STICKING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEST WEEK AND TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TIMING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ALREADY DISCUSSED AND THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION...THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS WITH RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE TRENDS THIS SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT MID DAY THEN SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS 00Z TO ABOUT 06Z...THEN FURTHER LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z.
EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE ...THEN A TRANSITION TO RAIN MID MORNING ONWARD.
KART WILL SEE A LATER CHANGE TO RAIN IF AT ALL.
OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
SATURDAY...VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...VFR...SCTD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ON ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...RAISING WINDS AND WAVES AND CREATING
CONDITIONS REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
ON BOTH LAKES.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
DECENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL THE LAKES...WITH CONTINUED
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-010>012-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCHHazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 5:21 AM EST, 11 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 521 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-241030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 521 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO MAINLY RAIN FOR AWHILE FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS MORE LIKELY. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL BRING MORE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALLS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-241030- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 521 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 10:08 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 5 hr |
| Feb 23, 3:48 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 36 hr | |
| Feb 23, 4:06 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 11 hr | |
| Feb 23, 4:28 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson and 5 more | 11 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Watches in New York, 2012Every lake effect snow watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.