Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Watches in 2012

Lake Effect Snow Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 23, 201214 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow watch at Feb 23, 2012, 4:28 PM EST for 14 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 24, 2012, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 23, 2012, 4:28 PM EST (21:28 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 24, 2012, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 24, 2012, 3:54 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-02-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 11 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-02-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -17 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
440 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

935 
WWUS41 KBUF 232128
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

NYZ012-019>021-085-240530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH THE
  HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE
  LAKESHORE.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING
  WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN
  DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING
  OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES 
  FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES 
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-240530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING
  WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN
  DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING
  OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES
  FRIDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...TWO INCHES OR LESS
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-240530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.
THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
  ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON
  AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY LASTING
  THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY
  NIGHT...UP TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-240530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES...WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
  ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS 
  FRIDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-240530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-240530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT... 2 TO 4 INCHES
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
2 follow-up statements
798 
WWUS41 KBUF 240350
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

NYZ012-019>021-085-241200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH THE 
  HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM 
  THE LAKESHORE. 

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
  MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY 
  BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES 
  FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES 
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-241200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
  MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
  WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY 
  BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES 
  FRIDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...TWO INCHES OR LESS 
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-241200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST STORM TOTAL 
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS 
  OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN 
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY 
  LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY 
  NIGHT...UP TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY 
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-241200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T0500Z-120225T0000Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES...WITH GREATEST 
  ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS 
  FRIDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-241200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES 
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-241200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
1050 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES 
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
315 
WWUS41 KBUF 240854
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

NYZ006-241700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.120225T0300Z-120225T2200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS
  WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS
  EVENING...DIMINISHING SATURDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-241700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.120224T2300Z-120225T2200Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
  THE SOUTHERN TIER. MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS EXPECTED ALONG THE
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-021-241000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WELLSVILLE
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ013-014-241000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120225T0000Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ001>003-241000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH. 

SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER
THE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DIMINISHED.

$$

NYZ007-008-241700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.120224T1100Z-120225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.120224T1300Z-120225T1100Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
  ON THE TUG HILL...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LEWIS
  COUNTY.

* TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWS TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING
  AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-241700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.120225T0000Z-120226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.120225T0900Z-120225T2200Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
354 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON SATURDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow watch went out at Feb 23, 3:41 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 3:41 PM EST, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A
CHANGE OF SNOW TO RAIN DURING FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL BRING COLDER AIR DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

12Z NAM12 AND REGIONAL GEM HAVE COME TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS AS TO THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY TO A PRECIP BAND PRECEDING THE SURFACE
LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT...WITHIN A LIKEWISE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION IN THESE SAME LAYERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEEP OMEGA
PLUME TO ABOVE 25000FT AND A CO-LOCATED OMEGA MAXIMUM WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL MAXIMIZE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS
TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN
INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL ALSO AFFECT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES...LESSER IMPACT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDES AS LITTLE MORE TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. WILL START A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT 6AM FOR JEFF/OSW/LEWIS COUNTIES WITH A 6-8 INCH MAX OF
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT SHOULD COME DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY FROM EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS
PRECIPITATION STARTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES LAKE ERIE. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPERMOST 30S TO MID 40S FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL
NY...THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY PLAGUING THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST...THE
ONE THING THAT APPEARS REASONABLY CERTAIN IS THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE PROBLEMATIC SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SYNOPTIC SNOWS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION BAND WEST OF THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA.

COLDER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE LOW WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES
FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -8C TO -10C RANGE
UNDER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S.
WHILE THE SURFACE-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT WITH A
BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS DEEP
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE SETUP...WILL GO WITH A
BROADBRUSH LES WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
ONTARIO/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WHERE CLIMATOLOGY GENERALLY RULES
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM 270 TO
290/300 DEGREES...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM OSWEGO/SOUTHERN LEWIS DOWN TO EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND FROM SOUTHERN ERIE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THESE AREAS HAVE THE STRONGEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FROM NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY OVER TO ROCHESTER.

IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND HENCE THE
SURFACE...WILL BE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION...CLOSEST TO THE AREA OF GREATEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
MAX GUSTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...MORE LIKE
35-45KTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN ADVISORY THAT STRADDLES THE
END OF THE THIRD INTO THE FOURTH FORECAST PERIODS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW AND LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT
TO MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON...WHEN THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE GREATER
CONFIDENCE.

AFTER A WINTRY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 30
DEGREES...MUCH MORE WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY.
...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST
THE AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY START TO THE WEEK AS A CLIPPER LOW SLIDES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANY
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WILL OCCUR FAR TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY DAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA HELPING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISPARITIES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO FORM
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER IN DEVELOPING BROAD WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO
THE ECMWF THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRESENTS A VERY SIMILAR
CONUNDRUM TO THE ONE PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST
AND GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT...CHANGES WILL BE VERY
MINOR...STICKING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEST WEEK AND TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TIMING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ALREADY DISCUSSED AND THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION...THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS WITH RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE TRENDS THIS SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT MID DAY THEN SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS 00Z TO ABOUT 06Z...THEN FURTHER LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09Z.
EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE ...THEN A TRANSITION TO RAIN MID MORNING ONWARD.
KART WILL SEE A LATER CHANGE TO RAIN IF AT ALL.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
SATURDAY...VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...VFR...SCTD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ON ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...RAISING WINDS AND WAVES AND CREATING
CONDITIONS REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
ON BOTH LAKES.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
DECENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL THE LAKES...WITH CONTINUED
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-010>012-019>021-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 5:21 AM EST, 11 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
521 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-241030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
521 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
SURGES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE
2 TO 4 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO MAINLY RAIN FOR AWHILE FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS MORE LIKELY.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL BRING MORE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-241030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
521 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 22, 10:08 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego5 hr
Feb 23, 3:48 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF36 hr
Feb 23, 4:06 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF11 hr
Feb 23, 4:28 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson and 5 more11 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Watches in New York, 2012Every lake effect snow watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.