Lake Effect Snow Advisory 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

289 
WWUS41 KBUF 281507
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

NYZ007-008-282315-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0004.120128T2100Z-120129T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1007 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  ALONG A LINE FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS AND CROGHAN. 

* TIMING...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER INCH SUNDAY 
  MORNING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE 
  COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR 
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

552 
WWUS41 KBUF 282018
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

NYZ007-008-290500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0004.120128T2100Z-120129T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
318 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  ALONG A LINE FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS AND CROGHAN. 

* TIMING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE
  SNOWS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE 
  COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR 
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

410 
WWUS41 KBUF 290317
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

NYZ007-008-291130-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120129T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1017 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS 
  ALONG A LINE FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS AND CROGHAN. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND UP TO TWO INCHES
  SUNDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE 
  COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR 
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

619 
WWUS41 KBUF 290852
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

NYZ007-008-291500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120129T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
352 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG A
  LINE FROM ADAMS TO WATSON.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS...ALONG WITH VERY POOR
  VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

280 
WWUS41 KBUF 291457
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

NYZ007-008-291600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120129T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
957 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

HEAVIER BANDS OF LAKE SNOWS HAVE TAPERED OFF LATE THIS
MORNING.

$$

APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
PREVENTING ANY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES BY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A
THIRD FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME NICE CLEARING
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH A THICK MID LEVEL DECK JUST UPSTREAM
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY MAY
SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD ARRIVES.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY THIS
WEEKEND AND DIRECT A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS AT 09Z. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST AND CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS HEIGHT FALLS...DPVA...AND A BELT OF ENHANCED 850-500MB
FLOW APPROACH...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE TRACK OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS COMING INTO PLAY SUGGEST THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NY
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY. GENERALLY EXPECT AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN WESTERN NY...A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST IN CENTRAL NY.

DESPITE 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -5C THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING SSW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW AND PREVENT ANY
ACCUMULATION AT ALL IN MOST AREAS...WITH JUST A LIGHT COATING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING POTENTIAL...SO IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BARELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD FROM THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH
RANGE IN BOTH THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER INLAND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
30-40 MPH.

FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE SETUP IS QUITE MARGINAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY NOSES NORTH WITH A RAPID LOSS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR
WINDOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LAKE INDUCED
CAPES IMPROVE TO AROUND 8-10K FEET IN WSW FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AND A
LACK OF UPSTREAM CONNECTION SHOULD KEEP THIS RATHER DISORGANIZED...
WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SKI COUNTRY.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ON THE HILLS THIS EVENING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN QUICKLY DRYS OUT. WHATEVER
REMAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LEFT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH A WARMER
LAKE...A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR...AND PROSPECTS OF AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 15K FEET TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WORKSTATION WRF
AND THE HIGH RES WRF-ARW DEVELOP AND UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON BANDING OVERNIGHT...WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP A PLUME OF MODERATE
QPF OVERNIGHT. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETTLES TO ABOUT 260
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY...ROUGHLY FROM ADAMS TO BARNES CORNERS
AND CROGHAN.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4-7 INCHES
WITHIN THE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL IN FAR
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SUPPORTING A FEW INCHES
NEAR REDFIELD...BUT THE MEAN 260 WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE
ADVISORY AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRESS EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WAVE ALSO SLIDING EAST FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
THE END OF THE DAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST WARMING ALOFT AND AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ACT TO DISRUPT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS PROCESS
TAKING PLACE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THEREAFTER...A SWATH OF MORE
GENERAL SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE WAVE. WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS NOW BOTH INDICATING A FAVORABLE
SWATH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...HAVE BUMPED POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME UP TO THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE. AT THIS
POINT...MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES
DURING SUNDAY...TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES.

SUNDAY EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST WITH ANY SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER GENERAL INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR SITES EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS A WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -8C TO
-11C AT THE START OF THE NIGHT TO ABOUT -14C/-15C BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE
ACTIVITY PEAKING BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILD EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD
TEND TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL ADVISORY-TYPE ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS COMING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVERALL.

DURING MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME RATHER SHEARED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING BACK
NORTH TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...WITH THIS WEAKENING MOST
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD.

FINALLY...THE VERY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LOW PUSHES ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK STATE. WILL THEREFORE
ADVERTISE SOME BROADBRUSH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ITS SLOW DEPARTURE ON MONDAY...TEMPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL STILL ONLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ON MONDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
BETWEEN FALLING BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND KEEPING A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING OUR
REGION UNDER THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT...WITH RAIN THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SECOND AND STRONGEST WAVE IN THE SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A RETURN OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER LARGE BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COLDER TEMPS FOR WEEK'S END...ALONG WITH A GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN THOUGH...THE LACK OF ANY TRULY ARCTIC AIR WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY FALLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND LIKELY REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PREDOMINANT VFR STRATO-CU DECK OF CLOUDS WILL
BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FORMING AHEAD A WEAK
CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY MORNING...A LOWER VFR DECK OF CLOUDS WILL
RETURN.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER SATURDAY MORNING. A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET MAY
RESULT IN LLWS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY JUST MIXED ENOUGH THAT GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT LLWS CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.

PCPN FORMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 15Z...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN
18Z-00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25
KNOTS...THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS VCNTY KBUF/KIAG LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS 40-45 KNOT FLOW JUST OFF
THE DECK BEGINS TO MIX DOWN AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STEEPENS
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LOW END GALE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE
TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

NYZ007-281045-
JEFFERSON-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DUE TO LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL...AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL TEND TO RUN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
AND SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-281045-
LEWIS-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL...AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL TEND TO RUN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
AND SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010-011-281045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL TEND
TO RUN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-004-013-014-281045-
MONROE-WAYNE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL...AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL TEND TO RUN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019>021-085-281045-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL TEND
TO RUN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
AND SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-006-281045-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL...AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL TEND TO RUN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
AND SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-281045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-281045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ030-281045-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-281045-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
542 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR