Alert archive / New York / Gale Watches in 2012

Gale Watch 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

October 13, 2012

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this gale watch at Oct 13, 2012, 3:44 PM EDT. It took effect at Oct 15, 2012, 4:00 AM EDT. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2012, 3:44 PM EDT (19:44 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 15, 2012, 4:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 14, 2012, 4:01 AM EDT
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

852 
WHUS71 KBUF 131944
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

LOZ042-140345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0800Z-121014T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. A
GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45
  KNOTS LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-140345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0800Z-121014T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-140345-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0600Z-121014T2200Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-140345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0200Z-121014T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45
  KNOTS LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0200Z-121014T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-140345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0600Z-121014T2200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-140345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
344 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
486 
WHUS71 KBUF 131951 CCA
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

LOZ042-140415-
/O.COR.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0800Z-121014T2200Z/
/O.COR.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. A
GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
  LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-140415-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0800Z-121014T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-140415-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0600Z-121014T2200Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-140415-
/O.COR.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0200Z-121014T2200Z/
/O.COR.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
  LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140415-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0200Z-121014T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-140415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0600Z-121014T2200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-140415-
/O.COR.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
350 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
875 
WHUS71 KBUF 140144
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

LOZ045-140945-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0144Z-121014T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
  LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0200Z-121014T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS LATE
  SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0800Z-121014T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS LATE
  SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0600Z-121014T2200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.121014T0800Z-121014T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
944 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS LATE
  SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
983 
WHUS71 KBUF 140801
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

LEZ040-041-141615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-121015T0400Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0026.121015T0400Z-121015T2000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-141615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-121015T0400Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0026.121015T0900Z-121015T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-141615-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.121015T0800Z-121015T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0026.121015T0900Z-121015T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-141615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0082.121015T1500Z-121015T2200Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-141615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-121015T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-141615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-121015T2200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-141615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-121015T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ063-141615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0009.121015T0900Z-121015T2000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
401 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale watch went out at Oct 13, 3:43 PM EDT, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 13, 3:43 PM EDT, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOOK FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NIAGARA PENINSULA AT
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY AND WITHIN THE DEVELOPING AXIS OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PRECIPITATION FIGHTING WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER IT WILL NOT TAKE THAT MUCH LONGER FOR
RAIN TO SPREAD QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 100
KNOTS PLUS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE AND WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN RAIN...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER. MODELS SOUNDING INDICATING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE...THEREFORE SOME THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE AREA EMERGES
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR...A MILD BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT MAY REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE REALIZED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL
US WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER LOWER MI BY SUNDAY EVENING.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEEPENING UNTIL ABOUT 12Z MONDAY AS IT MOVES NE INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WELL NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ABOUT THE TIME THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NY. THIS IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR
WINDS IN WESTERN NY ALTHOUGH THE LOW PLACEMENT IS NORTH OF TYPICAL
HIGH WIND EVENT.  SO IN THIS CASE IT LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND EVENT LASTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING MONDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...THE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT
APPEAR TO CONTAIN MUCH MOISTURE...AND WILL GENERALLY KEEP ONLY A
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...EVEN SUMMERLIKE...FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALLING
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WNY.  TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY AND MILD OVERNIGHT.

LATER MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR A
MEAGER LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES ON A SW FLOW VEERING TO THE W AND A MIXTURE OF LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE EFFECTS FORMING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SHOULD COOL WITH TIME...WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH
TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SLACKENS OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT APPEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A WEAK COASTAL LOW...WHILE SREF
AND OTHER OPERATIONAL RUNS KEEPING A TROUGH OFF THE COAST.  HPC
DOES NOT FAVOR THE GFS. THIS HAS MINIMAL IMPLICATIONS FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT DOES CREATE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...FAVORING THE ECMWF
AND IGNORING GFS OUTPUT FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON.

FOLLOWING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF THEN...EXPECT A RIDGE IN PLACE
FOR A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NW OF THE AREA
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH NOW ON THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BOOST AREA TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE AND INTO THE 60S.

A CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL US BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST UPSTREAM OF NY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST...GENERALLY AFTER 22Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO
MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ARRIVES OVER THE REGION AND PRECIP INCREASES IN COVERAGE. THIS
INCREASE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 50-60KT LLJ
AFTER 00Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO RULE
OUT LLWS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE JET...60KTS AT
030KFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TURBULENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM
MVFR TO VFR. WINDY WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON BOTH LAKES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH SPEEDS
MAINTAINED...ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ON THE
LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
MONDAY EVENING WITH CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
         FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 13, 11:04 AM EDT, 4 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

NYZ003>008-013-014-021-141515-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>044-SLZ024-141515-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-141515-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ045-062>065-SLZ022-141515-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 13, 9:43 AM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF3 days

Nearby

Gale Watches in New York, 2012Every gale watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.