Alert archive / New York / Dense Fog Advisories in 2012

Dense Fog Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 16, 201216 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this dense fog advisory at Mar 16, 2012, 4:36 PM EDT for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 16, 2012, 5:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 16, 2012, 4:36 PM EDT (20:36 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 16, 2012, 5:00 PM EDT
Expired
Mar 17, 2012, 10:47 AM EDT
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-03-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 53 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-03-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 215 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
53 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-99 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
601 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
215 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
229 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

527 
WWUS71 KBUF 162036
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

NYZ010-019-085-170000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.120316T2100Z-120317T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
436 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. 

* IMPACTS...SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL IMPACT
  TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
TJP
9 follow-up statements
719 
WWUS71 KBUF 162341
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

NYZ019-170045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T0000Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
741 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. 

THE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED NORTH OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ010-085-170400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T0400Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
741 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
  IN VISIBILITY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TJP
336 
WWUS71 KBUF 162354
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

NYZ001-170400-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T0400Z/
NIAGARA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NIAGARA FALLS
754 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
  VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-170400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T0400Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
754 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
  VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TJP
640 
WWUS71 KBUF 170205
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

NYZ001-010-085-171015-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1100Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1005 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF ERIE COUNTY AND NIAGARA COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT. 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TJP
021 
WWUS71 KBUF 170519
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
119 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

NYZ002-011-012-019-020-171200-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1200Z/
ORLEANS-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN
119 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-171200-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
119 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
  JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
  IN VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-010-085-171200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1200Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
119 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF ERIE COUNTY AND NIAGARA COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
447 
WWUS71 KBUF 170755
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

NYZ013-014-171200-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1200Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
  IN VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-171200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-171200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF 
  JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

WOOD/THOMAS
742 
WWUS71 KBUF 171109
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
709 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

NYZ021-171500-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
709 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF ALLEGANY COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-171500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
709 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-171500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
709 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF 
  JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-171500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
709 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
933 
WWUS71 KBUF 171244
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
844 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

NYZ003>005-171500-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
844 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN AN EIGHTH OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
  VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN,
AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-171500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
844 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN AN EIGHTH OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-171500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
844 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF 
  JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN AN EIGHTH OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-021-171500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
844 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN AN EIGHTH OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
030 
WWUS71 KBUF 171354
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085-171500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...
WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
954 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. 

INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE FOG THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ003>005-171500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
954 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-171500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
954 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SUDDEN REDUCTIONS 
  IN VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES... RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW
DOWN... AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT
CLOSE RANGE. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

TJP
418 
WWUS71 KBUF 171447
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

NYZ001>005-010-011-171600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120317T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
1047 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. 

INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE FOG THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this dense fog advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this dense fog advisory went out at Mar 16, 3:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 3:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
317 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SETTLE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EXTRAORDINARILY
WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
70S IN MANY LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES. IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST. LINGERING
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE...WITH A CLEARING TREND
THROUGH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CALM WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATION
FOG...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK. EXPECT STRATUS OR FOG TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER
A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH THIS ON THE NORTH AND WEST
SHORES...MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT CANADA. EVEN WITH THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...IN THE 40S IN
MOST SPOTS.

WHILE WE DO NOT KEEP RECORDS FOR "NICE"...TOMORROW MAY VERY WELL SET
THAT RECORD IF WE DID. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVEWAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES THE MAIN SOURCE OF WINDS.
WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 30S...EXPECT NOTABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...WHERE HIGHS MAY
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW...THIS
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL MAINTAIN MILD CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO FIRE
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WEST. EXPECT TO
SEE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
THETA-E GRADIENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PENETRATES THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE
HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE
DAY...LIFTING NORTH AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE
SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTION IN THE WEST...A LULL AT MID DAY...THEN
REFORMATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ONLY ABOUT A THIRD TO HALF OF SREF MEMBERS SHOWING
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND LIKEWISE NAM12 HAS ONLY MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS...SO WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GFS IS RUNNING TOO
FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE
AND THE EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RUN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STILL
VERY WARM FOR MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP. WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE RECORD FOR WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS 49
DEGREES IN 1919 FOR BUFFALO AND 47 DEGREES FOR ROCHESTER ALSO IN
1919.

MONDAY MAY BE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NY TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST AND
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN
NY. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILARLY MILD...A CONTINUATION OF THE
OPPORTUNITY TO BREAK OVERNIGHT WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING INCREDIBLE WARMTH
WHICH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A VERY DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A MASSIVE EASTERN RIDGE WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MOST DAYS...THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY LIKELY MAKING A RUN AT 80 ON AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. EXPECT SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BE WEAK ENOUGH ON MOST DAYS TO ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL
CHANCE OF ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THIS
VERY LIMITED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

12Z GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS IS SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF...FASTER
BUT SIMILAR. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ON FRIDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. WE MAY SEE THE BREAKDOWN
OF THE PRONOUNCED EASTERN UPPER RIDGE AND AFTER THE EFFECTS OF THE
REMAINS OF THE CUTOFF LOW CROSSING THE REGION SOMETIME DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK...WE MAY SETTLE INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...STILL
MILD BUT NOT AS MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN IMPACT TO
AVIATION WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. FOR MOST SITES...THERE WILL BE A MVFR CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE
LOWEST AND LINGER LONGER FURTHER TO THE EAST...WITH ART LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LONGEST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. AFTER
THIS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOG TO FORM AT SOME LOCATIONS. FOR THE
MOST PART...EXPECT THIS TO BE PATCHY AND FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT AT
JHW WHERE IT MAY FOG IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN LIFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP IT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

ANY FOG LINGERING SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIFT...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE -TSRA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE COLD LAKE
WATERS STABILIZING WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

...MARCH OF 2012 MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD...
ITS NO SECRET THAT WE HAVE HAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH...WITH MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON TODAYS FORECAST...BOTH BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WILL HAVE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES TO BREAK RECORD
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WHILE MARCH IS ONLY HALF DONE...IF FORECAST TEMPERATURES TURN OUT
CORRECT...THERE WILL BE NEARLY A WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
ABOUT 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PROJECTING THIS OUT...EVEN IF THE
PAST FEW DAYS OF MARCH TURN OUT TO BE NEAR NORMAL...THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT THE MONTHLY AVERAGE WILL TURN OUT TO BE BETWEEN
45 AND 48 DEGREES. THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD IS 44.5 DEGREES SET
IN 1946.

SO WHILE ITS A BIT EARLY TO PROCLAIM A RECORD...ITS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT MARCH OF 2012 WILL BE RECORD SETTING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
CLIMATE...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 12:26 PM EDT, 4 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1226 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-171630-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1226 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-171630-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
1226 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>008-014-171630-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
1226 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 16, 5:07 PM EDTMarine Dense Fog AdvisoryBUF3 hr

Nearby

Dense Fog Advisories in New York, 2012Every dense fog advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.