Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE EARLY WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORMS ENDING BY LATER IN THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES NOTICEABLY
DROPPING. SEASONABLY MILD AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...CRNT KENX/KGYX AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN VT INTO THE
CENTRAL CPV MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WL
CONT TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THRU
03Z...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. LATEST OBS SHOW SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 80S WITH DWPTS IN THE M/U 60S ACRS
EASTERN/SOUTHERN VT...CREATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...STILL MORE CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ACTUAL SFC COLD FRNT. THIS
MAY IMPACT SLV/NORTHERN NY THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...SO ADDITIONAL SVR WX THREAT WL BE MINIMAL. SEE LSRBTV
FOR LATEST REPORTS OF SVR WX ACRS OUR CWA.

HAVE UPDATED ZNS TO FRESHEN POPS AND TEMPS/DWPTS BASED ON CRNT
OBS. STILL THINKING LIKELY/CAT POPS THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC
POPS AFT MIDNIGHT. ALSO...HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ACRS ENTIRE
CWA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH THEN
SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SVR STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS NC/NERN VT. TEMPERATURES STILL SEASONABLY
WARM (75-80) BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NOTICEABLY DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOWER TD VALUES ARE USHERED IN ON MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THEN TRENDING PC/CLR AND DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
RETURN TO A REFRESHINGLY MILDER/COOLER AIRMASS TRANSITIONS INTO THE
REGION UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S.

THEREAFTER...SOME DISPARITY AMONG MODELS ON EXTENT OF LOWER TO
MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION AND DEGREE TO WHICH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
ASSOC LOW PRESSURE SKIRT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY JUST A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LOWER-END
CHC POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SWRN COUNTIES LATE TO ACCT FOR UNCERTAINTY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF PCPN SHIELD ASSOC W/THIS FEATURE. WITH
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...KEPT LOWS A TAD MILDER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS...THOUGH GENERALLY STILL KEPT VALUES IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES TO DAYS 4 THRU 7 IN THE
FCST...BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. THIS INCLUDES
INCREASING POPS TO HIGH CHC FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI...AND ADDING
SOME ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SAT BASED ON LATEST 12Z ECMWF.

LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOWS DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN WITH TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CONUS.
THIS SHARP GRADIENT WL HELP TO FOCUS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO EXACT
POSITION OF HEAVIEST QPF. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS TO BE
PLACED ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH GREATER CHCS
FOR PRECIP. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...GIVEN SHARP THETA E AXIS AND
STRONG WAA SIGNATURE...ITS JUST DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT
LOCATIONS. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS FOR LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. FOR
SATURDAY...LATEST ECMWF SHOWS MID LVL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER PIECE
OF ENERGY DROPPING SE ACRS OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
BE ENOUGH TO MENTION ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. A DRYING
TREND WL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
GIVEN THE SHARP SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS
INTO FRIDAY WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMP FCST...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/PRECIP. WL MENTION LOWS IN THE U50S TO M60S
AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME, BRINGING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. TAFS STARTING OUT WITH A COMBINATION OF EITHER VCTS
OR -TSRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL SEE CONVECTION BACK IN
ONTARIO AS WELL. SO TO BE HONEST, THINGS CHANGING/MOVING SO QUICKLY
THAT ITS HARD TO TIME EXACT CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL TAF
UPDATES AS THE EVENING GOES ON TO BETTER ATTEMPT TO CATCH THINGS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER 05Z. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND SOME IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS. HAVE LEFT OUT SHOWERS FROM THE TAFS,
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER, BUT PROBABILITY IS RATHER LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY
MORNING LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-12Z.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH IN VICINITY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RADARS...

AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...THE WSR-88D IN COLCHESTER VERMONT (KCXX)
IS CURRENTLY DOWN FOR ITS DUAL- POLARIZATION UPGRADE. THE RADAR
WILL BE DOWN FOR APPROXIMATELY 4-7 DAYS.

THE WSR-88D IN FORT DRUM NEW YORK (KTYX) IS CURRENTLY DOWN DUE TO
A TELECOM OUTAGE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/OBSERVATIONAL DATA...

THE KRUT AWOS WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FROM 14-19Z ON TUESDAY DUE TO
SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF/NASH
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-241915-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
304 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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