Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Burlington, VT

July 4, 2012St. Lawrence County, New York

NWS Burlington, VT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 4, 2012, 5:03 PM EDT for St. Lawrence County, New York. It was in force for 57 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2012, 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2012, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Burlington, VT
Area: Storm-based polygon

County St. Lawrence County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 4, 5:53 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Russell, NY	MAIL CARRIER REPORTED A COUPLE OF LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN ALONG ROUTE IN RUSSEL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 50 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 97 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 864 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

358 
WUUS51 KBTV 042103
SVRBTV
NYC089-042200-
/O.NEW.KBTV.SV.W.0045.120704T2103Z-120704T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
503 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

* AT 457 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR NORTH
  RUSSELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  DEGRASSE...FINE...CRANBERRY LAKE...WANAKENA...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL
DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 7506 4440 7482 4423 7469 4417 7463
      4409 7460 4408 7463 4405 7502 4417 7514
      4432 7522 4441 7523 4448 7528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 332DEG 26KT 4443 7510

$$
LOCONTO

2 follow-up statements

358 
WWUS51 KBTV 042134
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
534 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NYC089-042200-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-120704T2200Z/
ST. LAWRENCE NY-
534 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...

AT 530 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR NEWTON
FALLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  CRANBERRY LAKE...STAR LAKE...WANAKENA...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4429 7520 4435 7515 4437 7508 4440 7502
      4440 7482 4423 7469 4417 7463 4409 7460
      4408 7463 4405 7502 4417 7514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 332DEG 26KT 4423 7495

$$
LOCONTO

610 
WWUS51 KBTV 042158
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
558 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NYC089-042209-
/O.EXP.KBTV.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-120704T2200Z/
ST. LAWRENCE NY-
558 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING REMAIN POSSIBLE.

IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO STRIKE YOU. STAY
IN SAFE SHELTER AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER YOU HEAR THE LAST CLAP OF
THUNDER.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

LAT...LON 4429 7520 4435 7515 4437 7508 4440 7502
      4440 7482 4423 7469 4417 7463 4409 7460
      4408 7463 4405 7502 4417 7514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 332DEG 26KT 4407 7483

$$
LOCONTO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 3:54 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 3:54 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SCT -RW/-TRW ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTNOON. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE/INCR AS EVENING
PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DO TO FRNT OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING S AND E. TEMPS/DEWPTS OVER THE AREA STILL REMAIN
HIGH ATTM WITH NO MAJOR RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL FROPA OCCURS TNGT.
WITH ANY THUNDER...THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PERSIST THRU MIDNIGHT TIL FRNT THRU
MOST OF CWA. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER DOWN TO -RW FROM W TO E
OVERNGT/TOWARDS MORNING. EXPECTING FG TO DEVELOP TNGT AS WELL AFT
MIDNGT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COASTL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THURSDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF FRNT STALL OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SOME LINGERING CLDS/PRECIP FOR PORTIONS OF
E VT THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE REGION CLRING OUT FOR NICE DAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERMAL RIDGE BRINGS 850
TEMPS NEAR +20C AND 925 TEMPS AROUND +24C. THIS COMBINED WITH
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 90F. MDLS
BRING WK FRNTL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRI NGT. W/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRONT WHICH
WAS NORTH OF CWA FOR FRI NGT WILL BEGIN TO DROP OVER THE CWA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES WAY OFFSHORE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW AS SYSTEM DOES FALL
APART LATE IN DAY BFR HITTING SOUTHERN NEW ENG COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. BROAD UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WK VORT MAY DROP
DOWN AFFECTING THE REGION WITH SOME LGT -RW...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM 19-03Z.
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IFR VSBY AND MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SOMETHING
HITTING A TERMINAL AT THIS TIME SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR
NOW. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. AFTER 03Z...A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH IFR BR/FOG LIKELY FORMING AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME PATCHY MVFR
BR POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE EXCEPT EARLY MORNING
IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...NEILES

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 4:34 AM EDT, 12 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
434 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-050845-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
434 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE,
HOWEVER THEY COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HANSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:31 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE                44.41N  72.14W
07/04/2012  E0.75 INCH       CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200189

JN

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:33 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             1 SSW WALDEN            44.44N  72.23W
07/04/2012  M1.00 INCH       CALEDONIA          VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER OUT AND 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200190

MAB

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:49 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
449 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             CANTON                  44.60N  75.17W
07/04/2012  M1.50 INCH       ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200191

MAB

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:50 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARNET                  44.30N  72.05W
07/04/2012  E60 MPH          CALEDONIA          VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200192

MAB

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:53 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WEST DANVILLE     44.42N  72.22W
07/04/2012                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            15 TO 20 TREES DOWN ON CARS AND ACROSS N SHORE DRIVE.
            SMALL BOATS FLIPPED IN JOES POND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200193

MAB

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:58 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
458 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             1 W WALDEN              44.45N  72.25W
07/04/2012  M1.00 INCH       CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS BLEW A GRILL OFF A DECK AND
            DOWNED MULT LIMBS AND POWER LINES... 1 INCH HAIL AS WELL

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WALDEN              44.45N  72.25W
07/04/2012                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS BLEW A GRILL OFF A DECK AND
            DOWNED MULT LIMBS AND POWER LINES... 1 INCH HAIL AS WELL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200194
EVENT NUMBER BTV1200195

MAB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Burlington, VT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 2:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Clinton	61 min
Jul 4, 3:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BTV	St. Lawrence	56 min
Jul 4, 4:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	St. Lawrence	60 min
Jul 4, 5:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Clinton, Essex, Franklin	63 min
Jul 4, 6:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Clinton, Essex	57 min
Jul 4, 7:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Clinton, Essex	58 min
Jul 4, 7:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Essex	65 min
Jul 4, 7:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Essex	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.