Flood Watch 1, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SANDY WILL
APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VERY GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH POWER OUTAGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED ABOVE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME LOCATIONS...SO HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WILL ALSO DROP
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO
OVERALL TRACK OF SANDY AND IMPACTS ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATEST
TRENDS SHOW SANDY COMING ASHORE IN CENTRAL NJ AROUND 00Z
TUES...WHICH IS 6 TO 10 HOURS QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS...BUT
MAGNITUDE AND IMPACTS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR. THIS FASTER TIMING WL
RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARRIVING BY MONDAY
AFTN ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT AND EXPANDING TWD THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BY EVENING.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WL CAPTURE SANDY AND
RETROGRADE THE SYSTEM BACK TWD THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. OVERALL
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH
STRONG BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SANDY COMING
ASHORE AROUND 00Z TUES. IN ADDITION...NAM/GEM AND GFS SHOW SFC
LOW PRES NEAR 950MB...WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
EASTERN CANADA WL CREATE AN EXTREME PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA
WITH VERY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE OFF THE CHARTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACTS. QUICK LOOK SHOWS HGHTS BTWN 6 AND 10 STD
BLW NORMAL FROM 1000 TO 500MB WITH VERY SIMILAR VALUES FOR MSLP.
IN ADDITION....THE U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IS 4 TO 7 STD BLW
NORMAL BTWN THE 925MB AND 850MB LEVEL....SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW 85H WINDS OF 80 TO 95 KNTS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...ALONG WITH 925MB WINDS OF 50
TO 60 KNTS. THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND POSITION OF SFC LOW PRES LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE APRIL 16, 2007 EVENT...WHERE WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES OCCURRED ACRS THE NEK...WESTERN SLOPES...AND HIGHER TRRN OF
THE DACKS WITH WINDS BTWN 55 AND 75 MPH. THIS TIME...SFC LOW PRES IS
10 TO 15MB STRONGER...BUT 925MB TO 850MB WIND FIELDS ARE VERY
SIMILAR. FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AMOUNT OF MIXING...SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLW AT RUT WITH TOP OF THE MIX LAYER
WIND VALUE OF 81 KNTS. THIS SUPPORTS GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM DANBY/RUTLAND TO EAST MIDDLEBURY TO RIPTON
TO UNDERHILL TO CAMBRIDGE. IN ADDITION...LIKE APRIL 2007 STRONG
WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND PARTS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT...AS DOWNSLOPE FLW OCCURS OFF THE WHITE MTNS IN
NH. THESE WINDS WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES...WITH AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES LIKELY BY MONDAY EVENING.

AS SANDY APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
WL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. BASED ON
PROGGED RH AND UVVS FIELDS...I WOULD ANTICIPATE RAIN TO DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BY 15Z MONDAY...AND EXPAND TO ALL OF VT AND
MOST OF NORTHERN NY BY 00Z TUES. GIVEN...PROGGED MOVEMENT OF
SYSTEM...ANTICIPATE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...WHERE BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OCCURS. STILL ANTICIPATING SE UPSLOPE AREAS TO RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES
BY MID WK...WITH MUCH LESS ACRS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CPV/NEK
AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN DACKS. I WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME RISES IN
LOCAL WATERWAYS...BUT NO MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. SEE HYDRO SECTION BLW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM SANDY AS STRONG WINDS MOVE INTO THE
AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...LANDFALL OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THIS WOULD FAVOR THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE WEST SLOPES. WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN TREES
AND POWER LINES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE LOSS OF POWER. WINDS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD APPROACH 60 MPH GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE ORIENTATION TO THE WIND. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IS WHERE SANDY MAKES ACTUAL LANDFALL. ANY MORE NORTHERLY LANDFALL
LOCATION WOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...NOT JUST ALONG THE WEST SLOPES.
THIS WAS THE CASE WITH THE APRIL 16TH 2007 WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION...GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND TRACK OF SANDY...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO UPSLOPE
REGIONS AND POINTS SOUTH...SO AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF
THE MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHARP RISES ON SMALLER RIVERS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...CIRCULATION CENTER WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME
WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TO LINGER THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SANDY WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION ON MONDAY...SO EXPECTING HIGH SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE. ALSO EXPECTING PERIODS OF RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SANDY WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY
WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM LUDLOW/KILLINGTON AREA TO
STOWE/MORRISVILLE AND ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS. MEANWHILE...TOTALS WL
BE BTWN 0.50" AND 1.0" ACRS THE CPV AND NEK...WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLW WL
LIMIT OVERALL QPF. THESE TOTALS WL CAUSE SOME RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVERS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ACTION/FLOOD
STAGE BY TUES INTO WEDS. RIVERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
REACHING ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE OTTER CREEK...DOG
RIVER...MAD RIVER...AND AUSABLE RIVER IN NY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH WAVES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET AT WORST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH NO REESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT NORTHEAST
WINDS ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH WAVES FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. ANY UNNECESSARY
MARINE TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. RAIN WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY ABATING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...MUCCILLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
439 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-280845-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
439 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF NEW YORK WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM SANDY. BASED ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...WINDY TO
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...50 TO 70 MPH...WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...THUS POWER OUTAGES CAN BE EXPECTED. OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY NORTHWARD SHIFT
IN WHERE SANDY MAKES LANDFALL WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT OF
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...AND THOSE WINDS WOULD IMPACT A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS.

TAKE THE TIME THIS WEEKEND TO EXAMINE YOUR PROPERTY AND DETERMINE
IF ANY ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS AFFECTING
YOUR SPECIFIC LOCATION. FOLLOW THIS WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY! VISIT
US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA IS ALSO A GOOD SOURCE FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

EVENSON