Small Craft Advisory for Winds 18, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOWS SOME RAGGED LOW STRATUS LINGERING OVER CAMERON
COUNTY AND THE PORTIONS OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THESE AREAS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AND
ALSO APPEAR TOO RAGGED TO POSE MUCH OF AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE FURTHER ALOFT IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWS PRETTY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CI/CS ADVECTING IN OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE DIFFER QUITE A BIT FOR THE
OVERALL CEILING TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO FRI WITH THE GFS
BEING MUCH LOWER WITH THE OVERALL CEILINGS VERSUS THE NAM. BELIEVE
THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR OUT TO LUNCH VERSUS THE NAM WHICH
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG TO
ALLOW MUCH FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WITH MOST OF THE
FOG REMAINING CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS.
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THIS AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL INCLUDE
A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG LATE IN TEH CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER HERE. EXPECT VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z SAT DUE TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FEW TO SCT LAYER AROUND 3000 FEET WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AROUND 1000 FEET
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BKN DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING FURTHER TO 600 TO 800 FEET. WINDS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTIER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. BREEZY CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW RUNNING 20 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 AROUND NOON. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOWERING WINDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST BRIEFLY. AREAS THAT SEE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO SEE MUCH
LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT/...BACK INTO THE WARM HUMID
SOUP TONIGHT AS ENOUGH GRADIENT KEEPS TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH AFTER THE INITIAL EVENING DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE LOWER AND MID VALLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WINDS WILL DECOUPLE A BIT ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE PLAINS...AND GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD FOG WHICH GOT
A BIT DENSE EARLY THIS MORNING IN HEBBRONVILLE BELIEVE AREAS OF
FOG BUT NOT AS DENSE WILL FORM UP IN THESE AREAS. LEFT PATCHY
ELSEWHERE FOR SOME LOCAL 3 MILE VISIBILITIES.

FRIDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST PRE-FRONTAL HEAT SPIKES OF THE YOUNG
SPRING.  HOW MUCH OF A SPIKE AND HOW FAR EAST WILL DEPEND ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE
DAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW A PRONOUNCED SURGE OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT 850 MB COMBINED WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22C CAN
ALLOW UP TO 14C OF DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH
WOULD LOCK IN MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 90S MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.  COULD EVEN GET HOTTER...BUT ITS A BIT EARLY AND PREFER
TO FALL IN LINE WITH REASONABLE NAM DATA WHICH HANDLES THE SPIKE AS
WELL AS THE FAIRLY SHARP DROP IN DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY.  TOWARD THE
COAST...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LESS...BUT EXPECT THE WEST SECTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
(HARLINGEN TO ARMSTRONG) TO POKE 90 AS WELL.  WITH THE SURGE COMES
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH ONLY THIN CIRRUS...SO MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS.

CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.  A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF FOG IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY OF JIM HOGG/STARR/ZAPATA/BROOKS UNTIL 4 AM OR SO
BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERS
IN.  AS FOR PRECIPITATION...NOT BULLISH ON CHANCES AS EVENT HAS
LIMITED KATABATIC ENERGY AND INVERSION/DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EVEN LAST SATURDAY.  MAY BE A CASE OF
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE DRY AIR RUSHES IN. FOR NOW...HAVE RETAINED THE
SLIGHT CHANCES EAST...BUT REMOVED FROM THE DRIER WESTERN ZONES FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 NEAR THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S AT BEST LOWER VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK.  HAVE KEPT 12Z TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST...AND HELD WINDS BELOW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS UNTIL
AFTER THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FEATURES A DECENT COLD FRONT. EARLIER FORECAST HAS THIS
FEATURE DEPICTED WELL BUT LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BY 3 TO 6 HOURS. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE GRIDS
WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING MID TO LATE MORNING INSTEAD OF PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. RAIN FORECAST STILL LOOKS SLIM WITH GFS ON THE DRIER
SIDE WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WETTER. THE SLOWER FRONT MAY ALLOW
FOR MORE COVERAGE BUT EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
BETTER. THE UPPER SUPPORT IS GOOD WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125+
KNOT NORTHERN JET. AIRMASS WILL BE COMFORTABLY DRY BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE COLD BUT COOL. RAPID DRYING AND NORTH WINDS IN THE
WINDY RANGE OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE COOLEST
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW AND
GULF MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING. FORECAST FOLLOWS MODEL TREND
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS FARTHER
NORTH AND FASTER THEN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
BRUSH OF SLIGHT CHANCES WED AND THURSDAY.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE GULF WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WITH
MARINE LAYER TAKING HOLD AND LOWERING SPEEDS OVER THE COOLER
WATER. INTERESTINGLY...LAST NIGHT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT /WARM/ ADVECTION TO KEEP A BIT OF A MARINE LAYER GOING
AND REDUCE WINDS BELOW EVEN CAUTION LEVELS WHICH IS NOT TYPICALLY
THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A BIT MORE WIND
BUT STILL BELOW THE GRADIENT SUGGESTED ADVISORY...SO CAUTION IS
BEST BET RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR SITUATION FRIDAY
WITH NO CAUTION/ADVISORY NEEDED IN 15 KNOT OR LOWER WINDS...AND
EVEN LOWER FOR MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A SURGE NORTH OF
PORT MANSFIELD JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A
RAPID RISE IN ROUGH WATERS.

FOR THE LAGUNA...ADVISORY RIGHT ON EDGE WITH WINDS AT KPIL JUST
INLAND STILL RUNNING ABOVE 20 KNOTS WHILE KSPL INFLUENCED BY MARINE
LAYER AND NOW DOWN IN THE 8 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.  WILL HOLD ADVISORY
FOR NOW BUT EXPECT CAUTION VALUES OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS TO
NEARBY LAND SITES.  CAUTION MORE LIKELY THAN ADVISORY ON FRIDAY BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY...WITH QUIETING
CONDITIONS AND BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ADVECTION/SEA FOG COMBINATION
FOR A TIME BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO APPROACH GALE
FORCE OFFSHORE BUT LATEST THINKING IS TO KEEP IT JUST SHY.
STRONGEST GRADIENT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO ALLOW FOR FUNNEL OF THE WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FOR ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN OUR REGION THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A GALE WATCH OR
WARNING. OTHERWISE...THE STRONG NORTH WINDS TO RUN THEIR COURSE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
SEAS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE TO BE HAD MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WIND RETURNING. WILL BE
MONITORING A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS
MODEL TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
STRONG HIGH COULD STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. AS A RESULT A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
COULD PRODUCE A LONG PERIOD SWELL WHICH WILL DIRECTED INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT TO USHER IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. DEW POINTS TO PLUNGE STEADILY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
TO MILD. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ALLOWING FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CRASH DURING THE DAY. RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND 25 TO 40 PERCENT EAST
OF THE 281 TO THE COAST. THESE VALUES COULD BE LOWER IF ADDITIONAL
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST CRITICAL AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE LESS GREEN UP HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST MONTH. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE NECESSARY
LATER TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  67  73  52 /  10  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  68  74  52 /  10  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            90  67  75  48 /  10  20  20   0
MCALLEN              94  67  78  49 /  10  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  63  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  67  70  55 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
620 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

TXZ251-254>257-021200-
KENEDY-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
620 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-021200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
620 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR
MARINERS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE
ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>250-252-253-021200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-
620 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI/STRAUB