Small Craft Advisory for Winds 15, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1145 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE UPPER VALLEY TO MID MORNING IN THE
LOWER VALLEY. IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH ABRUPTLY TO BREEZY OR WINDY FROM THE
NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS A CONTINUING THREAT THROUGH
ABOUT NOON. SOME TSTMS MAY BE STRONG...BUT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT IS CURRENTLY LESS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL TIMED
UPPER SUPPORT. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN
ADDITION TO RAIN ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...RELATIVELY BENIGN AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER BAJA KEEPS THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAS KEPT MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY. THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AREA AND WINDS BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
CWA WITH COOLER SPOTS FURTHER NORTH. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIG
SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MAY REACH THE MID 60S BUT WILL COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS A COLD AIR MASS SETS IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL IN THE MID
50S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS SAT MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 500MB TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TX TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KTS.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER BAJA CA.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND THEN SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST EVEN AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
425 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

TXZ248>257-241200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
425 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE
FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-241200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
425 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI/SPEECE